Wimbledon Preview and Picks: Serena Goes for Eighth Title

Novak Djokovic aims to win his third major of the season which would equal the record of 20 titles set by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, while also increasing his chances of becoming the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to complete the Calendar Slam. 

The women's draw is wide open, with Serena Williams' chances of a 24th major crown at their highest on the All England Club grass court. She’s reached the final in her last four visits, winning two titles.

Tennis Insiders has your complete breakdown of Wimbledon betting. We'll look at the favorites, underdogs, and live long shots in both draws in our Wimbledon picks and predictions.

Wimbledon conditions

The transition from clay to grass is difficult, as the two surfaces are complete opposites. Clay courts play slow with a high bounce, while grass courts play fast with a low bounce.

The grass-court season only lasts for a month, and players struggle to adapt their games with so little time to gain match practice and rhythm. Grass is also the most demanding surface on the body.

Grass courts can be affected by the weather, and a period of warm, dry conditions can bake the courts and make the ball bounce higher, while damp conditions mean the courts play with a lower bounce.  Grass courts also play much slower towards the latter end of tournaments, as the courts become bare from so much play.

Players who hit a flatter ball traditionally have more success on grass, their groundstrokes zip through the court and stay low, compared to those who hit with heavy topspin, their groundstrokes tend to sit up more and penetrate through the court less.

Despite being one of the faster surfaces, the tallest players don’t have huge success on grass due to a number of factors. Taller players struggle with returning/defending due to the ball bouncing so low, and their serves are also weakened because their kick serve is more effective on slower, higher bouncing courts. Take 6’11 John Isner as an example, he’s only advanced past the 3rd round at Wimbledon once in 11 visits. 

Wimbledon men’s picks

Favorite: Novak Djokovic +100

Djokovic was great in Paris and the five-time Wimbledon champion enters as a deserving favorite. His price, however, isn’t attractive and his efforts in Roland Garros will have taken a toll on his body. The shorter two-week turnaround between two majors is a very difficult hurdle to overcome, especially at 34.

He's helped by a generally weak grass court field right now and is unlikely to face any major threats until the semifinal/final stage. Daniil Medvedev is seeded No. 2 and will be on the opposite side of the draw, although Matteo Berrettini would be a very dangerous quarter/semifinal opponent if he lands in Djokovic’s half.

Underdog to Watch: Daniil Medvedev +1,000

Medvedev hasn’t produced his best tennis on the grass, but he’s contested two major finals since he last played on the surface and his flat ball striking is very effective in these conditions.

Medvedev, despite being 6-foot-6, can reach low bouncing balls on his backhand brilliantly, and his serve often flies under the radar. His counter-punching style will be rewarded on these courts — expect the Russian to go deep.

Live Longshot: Matteo Berrettini +2,000

Berrettini is an extremely dangerous grass-court player. Two years ago he stormed to the Stuttgart title before reaching the fourth round in Wimbledon.

He’s continued that fine grass-court form in 2021 (winning the title at Queen’s) and his huge serve/forehand combination excels in these conditions, while his improved slice backhand zips through the grass, staying low.

Wimbledon women’s picks

Favorite: Ashleigh Barty +500

This is certainly not a favorite you should take on before the tournament begins. Barty retired in the second round of the French Open with an arm injury and Wimbledon will be her first grass-court tournament of the season. We advise watching her early rounds before making a futures play on the Australian.

Her game is such a natural fit on grass — her serve is excellent for her height while her use of slice and variety works so effectively in these conditions. Opponents must adapt to numerous bounces and spins that can be extremely frustrating to play against.

Underdog to Watch: Serena Williams +620

Despite losing in the fourth round, Williams' performance in Paris was encouraging. She managed to get seven matches under her belt during the clay-court swing and will enter the grass-court tournament with more confidence in her game.

Grass will be Williams' only chance of another major title. Her serve and groundstrokes are immense weapons that are almost impossible to defend against when fully firing, but at 39 years old it’s extremely difficult to execute all areas of your game consistently from match to match. Injuries are more common and more difficult to fully rectify.

Live Long Shot: Belinda Bencic +4,000

Bencic’s counter-punching style was always going to be a good fit for grass. Though she’s yet to win a WTA title on the surface, she has played three finals and her career record on grass is 46-20.

Her serve has improved significantly and her backhand is rock solid — her somewhat weaker forehand wing is protected in these quick, low-bouncing conditions as she doesn’t have to generate her own pace.

This price is simply too big and with a Top-16 seed, she’ll likely improve on her previous best fourth-round appearance. 

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