Venus Williams returns to Arthur Ashe Stadium under the bright lights of the US Open, aiming to turn back the clock against No. 11 seed Karolina Muchova.
With the Ashe Stadium crowd firmly behind her and Muchova still battling form and confidence, my Williams vs. Muchova predictions expect a tight first set of tennis tonight.
Join me as I break down my US Open betting picks for Williams and Muchova on Monday, August 25.
Venus Williams Round 1 Match Picks & Predictions
- Prediction: 1st set o9.5 games (+125 at DraftKings)
- Best bet: 1st set o9.5 Games + Muchova -1.5 sets (+210 at DraftKings)
US Open Final picks and predictions
Match analysis
Venus Williams makes her Arthur Ashe return for the first time since 2023, and while the 45-year-old has only played three matches this season, she’s shown flashes of the tools that made her a legend.
The serve still has pop, the forehand can punish, and her backhand and return game remain functional enough to cause problems.
On the other side, No. 11 seed Karolina Muchova has been shaky since returning from a left-wrist injury suffered in Miami.
She’s posted first-round exits at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, with just a 3-2 summer hard-court record.
Muchova’s forehand has been erratic, often producing either a clean winner or a wild miss, while her serve and return game haven’t inspired much confidence.
With Muchova struggling to find rhythm, the Ashe crowd backing Venus, and Williams needing just four games to cash this play, the 1st set Over 9.5 games at plus-money is well worth grabbing.
Prediction: 1st set Over 9.5 games (+125 at DraftKings)
Best bet analysis
Venus makes her long-awaited return to Arthur Ashe Stadium. While her best years are behind her, the 45-year-old still has enough firepower to challenge early.
Her serve still produces free points, and with a fired-up New York crowd behind her, Venus should keep the opening set competitive.
Muchova, however, has the edge in fitness and baseline consistency. Though still shaking off rust from injury, she’s the steadier player and should eventually find her forehand and wear Venus down.
The 1st set Over is appealing on its own, but pairing it with Muchova -1.5 sets creates strong value at better than +200.
A tight opener followed by Muchova’s straight-sets win is a good two-leg same-game parlay to exploit for tonight’s clash.
Best bet: 1st set Over 9.5 Games + Muchova -1.5 sets (+210 at DraftKings)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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