We’ve arrived at the US Open semifinal stage on the women’s side, and on the bottom half of the draw, we have a surprising home semifinalist in Madison Keys going up against the new World No. 1 in Aryna Sabalenka.
We should be in for a real treat on Thursday night. Let’s take a look at the US Open odds and break down how the match should shake out in our free betting picks below.
US Open Women's Semifinal picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys odds and picks
| (2) Aryna Sabalenka | (17) Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| -265 | Moneyline | +210 |
| -3.5 (-130) | Game spread | +3.5 (+110) |
| Over 21.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 21.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Sept. 7, 2023.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys match prediction
This is a rematch of this year’s Wimbledon quarterfinal, which saw Sabalenka power through Keys in two relatively easy sets. In that match, Keys won just 57% of points behind her first serve and won just 25% of return points against the Sabalenka serve.
At this tournament, we’ve seen Keys exercise more dominance on serve and on return. In her quarterfinal win over Marketa Vondrousova on Wednesday, she won 68% of first-serve points and 41% of first-serve return points. She looks like she has clarity from the baseline, too, finding the range on her forehand and doing serious damage with her backhand.
This is a much more dangerous version of Keys than the one that Sabalenka faced at Wimbledon, and it should be said that the stakes will be a lot higher this time around.
Despite a victory at the Australian Open, Sabalenka has collapsed mentally at the semifinal stage of the last two Grand Slams, losing from up a set and a break against Karolina Muchova and Ons Jabeur.
Sabalenka may be World No. 1 and the most dominant player on tour, but her mental game has still looked as shaky as it has in years past. She also led Iga Swiatek by a break in the third set of last year’s US Open semifinal before ultimately losing. I think she’s got some serious demons here and there are no signs that suggest they've been exorcised.
Keys will have the crowd behind her, and with that, I’m not sure Sabalenka will have the strength to power through. This is the best level of Keys’ career and a much better one than we saw just a month ago at Wimbledon.
Prediction: Madison Keys moneyline (+220 at FanDuel)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys best bet
As we’ve noted, Sabalenka has made a habit of leading by a set and a break in her last two Grand Slam semifinals before ultimately coughing up the advantage. They have both gone the distance and with that, I do think Sabalenka will succumb to the pressure of Keys in at least one of these sets.
Sabalenka has yet to drop a set here at the US Open, but she’s also played a very easy draw to this point. Qinwen Zheng was her toughest challenge, and the level she brought to that match was nowhere near the one she brought against Ons Jabeur in the fourth round.
I think the Belarusian will be taken aback by Keys’ improved level, and I’d guess she drops the first set in this match. If you don’t think the American will have what it takes to go all the way here — which is fair given this will be one of the biggest matches of her career — the set spread offers safety.
Best bet: Madison Keys +1.5 sets (-120 at DraftKings)
