Australian Open Men's Final Odds and Predictions: Marathon Final Awaits Jannik and Daniil.

Italian No. 1 Jannik Sinner has turned many heads during his 2024 Australian Open run. He’s breezed through this fortnight by dropping just one set on his way to his first Grand Slam final.

Russian No. 1 Daniil Medvedev found himself staring down his second 0-2 set deficit of the tournament but hung tough in a five-set victory over German No. 1 Alexander Zverev to reach his third Australian Open final and sixth overall major final. 

Join me as I break down the Australian Open odds and offer my free betting pick for the Australian Open final matchup between Medvedev and Sinner on Sunday, January 28.

Australian Open Men's Final picks and predictions

• Prediction: Medvedev moneyline (+230 at DraftKings)
• Best bet: Over 38.5 games (-110 at DraftKings)

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on January 26, 2024.

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev match prediction

Jannik Sinner has waltzed through this event and dominated Novak Djokovic in the semis with his serve. He has earned this opportunity to play for his first major title, dropping just one set along the way, but standing in his way is a two-time Australian Open Finalist whose Houdini act during this fortnight can’t be ignored.

Daniil Medvedev will enjoy the luxury of playing in his sixth Grand Slam final and first against someone not named Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic. Medvedev has escaped after staring down the barrel of a pair of 0-2 set deficits during his run for the Koala Bear, including his semifinal victory over Alexander Zverev. 

Sinner served the match of his life against Djokovic. The Italian No. 1 didn’t allow a single break point over four sets, which stymied a man many claim is the greatest returner in ATP Tour history.  Making 83% of his first serves against Djokovic was heady stuff, but Sinner will have to repeat this performance against the statistically best returner on tour. 

Overcoming adversity is a big part of winning Grand Slam trophies, and Medvedev has survived every scare he’s faced thus far down under. Sinner has played amazing tennis thus far but hasn’t faced any real adversity during the past two weeks although he surely will on Sunday. How Sinner reacts to the nerves of playing in his first Grand Slam final is anyone's guess, but there isn’t a way in the world a three-time AO finalist like Medvedev should be a 2-1 or better underdog on a hard court against anyone.

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev moneyline (+230 at DraftKings)

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev best bet

Sunday’s final should be a highly entertaining and competitive matchup between two players who are familiar with each other's games and mindful of how much damage each can do to the other.

Sinner has served impressively during his AO run. He’s fired 47 aces over his six matches and has deployed his serve effectively without dropping a set until his semifinal with Joker. He’s won 78% of his first-serve points and 60% of his 214-second serves during the run-up to Sunday’s final with a whopping 83% first-serve rate against Djokovic. 

The Italian’s 30 break points over 19 sets are mind-blowing. Even though he’s had recent success against Djokovic, beating a legend like Joker in the way he did in the semis here in Melbourne almost begs for a letdown against a man he’s also enjoyed some recent success against.

Daniil Medvedev is the last person you want to regress or have any letdown against. He’s a two-time AO finalist, holds a US Open title, and has twice escaped a two-sets to-love (0-2) deficit during this fortnight. He’s accomplished this feat on a tourney-best 33 break-points won alongside the third-most aces while leading the tourney with a whopping 43 double-faults yet miraculously still reached the final.

Finally, if their head-to-head history can predict the future, then we should see a highly competitive match going the distance. Over their nine previous meetings, the two have gone three sets or better in five of them, with a sixth match ending 7-6, 7-6 (Sinner). I expect some regression from the Sinner serve and Medvedev to hang around long enough to win this match in Over 38.5 games (-110) at DraftKings. 

Best bet: Over 38.5 games (-110 at DraftKings)

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