Australian Open 2023 Men's Semifinals Odds and Predictions: Khachanov vs Tsitsipas and Djokovic vs Paul

Novak Djokovic's quest for a 22nd Grand Slam title continues tonight in what should be a pretty straightforward semifinal matchup against an unseeded Tommy Paul. We break it all down in our Australian Open semifinal picks below.

Last Updated: Jan 26, 2023 1:29 PM ET
Novak Djokovic Australian Open
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Australian Open is winding down, and four men remain on the Australian Open odds board.

Two of them seem to be on a collision course to meet in a rematch of the 2021 Roland Garros final, while the others are seeking their first-ever appearance in a Grand Slam final.

Will the underdogs prevail here, or will the known commodities move on? Let’s take a look at who should match up in Sunday’s final in our Australian Open free betting picks.

Australian Open Men's semifinal picks and predictions

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

Best Australian Open bonuses

Looking to bet on some Australian Open action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) Get a 33% profit boost on Tommy Paul to win a set vs. Novak Djokovic at DraftKings! Opt-in Now

B) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best betting promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Karen Khachanov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas odds and picks


(18) Karen Khachanov January 27, 12:00 a.m. ET (3) Stefanos Tsitsipas
+205 Moneyline -250
+4.5 (-125) Game spread -4.5 (+100)
Over 40.5 (-105) Total games Under 40.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 26, 2023.

Khachanov vs Tsitsipas match prediction

These two have met five times on tour with the Greek taking all five matches. Two of the last three have gone the distance, however, with Khachanov looking poised to finally take his first match off the World No. 4.

While Khachanov has never beaten Tsitsipas, he’s arguably never played this well in his career, and it’s worth noting that those three meetings I referenced all happened in the last two seasons. He’s steadily improved since his big breakout win in Paris in 2019 and subsequent career letdown.

We will get into how this match might go in a second, but if I have to call a winner here it’s going to be the favorite. While I do think Khachanov will dig his teeth into this match, I find it hard to believe he can outlast or outplay Tsitsipas in a best-of-five setting.

Tsitsipas comes into this semifinal with a head of steam. He’s yet to lose this year in nine matches, coming into the Australian Open with some nice wins over Taylor Fritz and Matteo Berrettini.

Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas (-240 at FanDuel)

Khachanov vs Tsitsipas best bet

Khachanov has been rocking the ball over the last couple of weeks, hitting blistering forehand winners and serving incredibly well. With that, I think he should be able to cover the spread of 4.5 games here. I see him winning a set at minimum and given how hard he’s been to break, I think he loses the other three sets in close fashion.

I’m particularly concerned about Tsitsipas' backhand here, which is his weaker wing. Khachanov hits a clean backhand and hits it low, and on these surfaces, it’s going to be hard for the Greek to dig out and get offensive.

As I noted above, Khachanov has played Tsitsipas incredibly closely over the past two years and definitely has a chance to win this match outright. He proved in his run to the semifinals at the US Open that he is a big-match player. I expect him to come ready.

Best bet: Karen Khachanov +4.5 games (-114 at BetRivers)

Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul odds and picks


(4) Novak Djokovic January 27, 12:00 a.m. ET Tommy Paul
-1,800 Moneyline +1,000
-8.5 (+110) Game spread +8.5 (-130)
Over 30.5 (-110) Total games Under 30.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 26, 2023.

Djokovic vs Paul match prediction

The outcome here really shouldn’t be in question. We had many questions about Djokovic’s injured hamstring entering the tournament, and he’s done well to answer all of them with his performance here in Melbourne.

There have been a couple of times where he’s looked hobbled, but even those moments haven't stopped him from winning points and breaking serve. He’s looked like vintage Djokovic for the vast majority of the tournament, and I don’t think a man with no weapons like Paul can stop him here.

Prediction: Novak Djokovic (-1,700 at FanDuel)

Djokovic vs Paul best bet

Paul has been serving much better and working his opponents around the court, and he’s showcased some of his all-world defense. The issue here is that simply playing defense against Djokovic is not enough to beat him. We saw Alex De Minaur – the fastest man on tour – get annihilated by Djokovic in front of a raucous home crowd.

You need weapons to beat Djokovic, and even that’s oftentimes not enough. You need to combine weapons with expert defending and the ability to think on your feet.

Paul has one of these three components. He often plays in predictable patterns, but he’s also got no weapons. Djokovic will be the best returner he’s played yet and even against a semi-decent returner in Roberto Bautista Agut, he struggled.

Considering the mismatch here and the fact Paul has played a lot of tennis at this tournament, I think this match will be over quickly. The American has had a career-defining performance here and will leave Melbourne feeling good about where his game is at heading into the season. He sadly won’t leave with a trophy, though, or a trip to the final.

Best bet: Under 30.5 games (-110 at DraftKings)

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo