Serena Williams announcing a return to professional tennis made headlines, but it didn't move the needle much in the overall Wimbledon odds.
Williams is being given just a 3% win probability by Kalshi users.
However, some more intriguing Serena Williams odds have been made available at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — including her Wimbledon round of elimination odds.
The Wimbledon draw has been set, with Williams playing Maya Joint — ranked No. 53 in the world — on June 30. Let's look at the latest Serena Williams Wimbledon odds.
Serena Williams Wimbledon odds
Serena Williams round of elimination odds
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The Wimbledon draws were released on Friday, June 26. As an unseeded wild card, Serena Williams will be fighting an uphill battle.
If the draw chalks out, she would be slammed with a third-round matchup with Iga Swiatek. If that happens, you can kiss Williams' chances of winning Wimbledon goodbye.
Williams hasn't competed in a singles WTA event since 2022. She only just returned to competitive tennis on June 1, reaching the quarterfinals of the Queen's Club Championships doubles event with Victoria Mboko.
Williams, partnered with Karolina Muchova, was bounced out of the first round of the Berlin Tennis Open doubles event when last seen.
Maya Joint has reached the second round of a grand slam event just once in eight tries, but the 20-year-old is just getting started and is the No. 53-ranked player in the world. She was ranked 28th earlier this season.
Pick: Williams to be eliminated in Round of 128 - Yes (-203 at Kalshi)
Serena Williams odds to win a tournament in 2026
As cool as it would be to see Serena Williams come back from a near four-year hiatus and win a WTA event, it simply isn't realistic, and I certainly wouldn't recommend betting it at -186.
The current "no" odds are a heavily-juiced -900, but that is the right side.
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Serena Williams Wimbledon history
Serena Williams last participated at Wimbledon in 2022, where she lost in the first round to Harmony Tan, 7-5, 1-6, 7-6 (10-7).
However, Williams is a seven-time winner at the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club, tied with Steffi Graf for the second-most Wimbledon titles in the Open Era. Martina Navratilova holds the record with nine career Wimbledon victories.
Williams last won Wimbledon in 2016, mere months before her 23rd and final career grand slam title to date (2017 Australian Open).
If Williams wins at Wimbledon, she'll equal Margaret Court's all-time record of 24 grand slams. Williams is already the winningest women's tennis player in the Open Era when it comes to grand slam titles.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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