Texans @ Steelers Picks & Props

Despite how it got in, Pittsburgh is in. And hosting a Houston team in one of the toughest venues in all of sports. Acrisure Stadium will undoubtedly be loud and cold, with temperatures that “feel like” sub-freezing Monday night. The Texans are all about that defense, entering the postseason with the top ranked stop unit in the land. But in order to cover the spread, you need to put some points on the board. That’s been challenging for C.J. Stroud & Co. – at least when venturing into the great outdoors. Houston averages less than 22 points per game in open-air venues and only 19.8 points per road game on the year – a 7.5-point slide compared to its production at home. Stroud is notoriously an “indoor cat”, with his career passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt all taking a nosedive outside. 

The Houston defense is the best unit in this game, and I’m confident Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud can lead the offense to enough points to cover the number Monday night. Stroud ranked 10th in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the seventh-most air yards and a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt across the final six weeks of the regular season, after all. For comparison, Steelers vet Aaron Rogders ranked 19th and 20th in the two metrics while throwing for 6.5 YPA during the same stretch, and now he faces the second-ranked scoring defense in football.

The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).. The Houston Texans pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.3%) versus running backs this year (78.3%).. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Houston's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 9th-best in the league.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to see 133.8 offensive plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. In this week's contest, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.6.

A rushing game script is implied by the Texans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.. C.J. Stroud has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (179.0) this year than he did last year (205.0).. C.J. Stroud checks in as one of the worst precision passers in the league this year with a 63.2% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 25th percentile.. The Pittsburgh cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to see 133.8 offensive plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. In this week's contest, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.6. . As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 133.8 offensive plays called: the most on the slate this week.. The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.. This year, the anemic Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded a staggering 85.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 5th-highest rate in football.. The Steelers linebackers profile as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

A rushing game script is implied by the Texans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.. Nico Collins's 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year conveys a remarkable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 75.0 rate.. Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.1% to 59.5%.. Nico Collins's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, accumulating a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.18 rate last season.. The Pittsburgh cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to see 133.8 offensive plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. The predictive model expects DK Metcalf to accumulate 8.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.. DK Metcalf rates in the 90th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a colossal 63.6 mark this year.

The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).. Kenneth Gainwell's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, notching a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.75 rate last season.. The Houston Texans pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.3%) versus running backs this year (78.3%).. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Houston's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 9th-best in the league.

A rushing game script is implied by the Texans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.. Dalton Schultz's skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, notching just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.94 rate last season.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to see 133.8 offensive plays run: the highest number among all games this week.