The Steelers have gotten their touchdowns over the past month from a wide variety of players, and scoring will be very hard to come by against this Houston defense. That’s why Kenneth Gainwell is my go-to in this spot.
Not only has he recently been Pittsburgh’s most consistent scorer, with touchdowns in three of his last five outings, but his 73 receptions on the season lead the team. Houston has a strong run defense, and their 10 touchdowns allowed to wideouts are the fifth-fewest in the league.
Gainwell leads all Steelers in red-zone targets, and has nearly as many carries inside the five yard line as teammate Jaylen Warren. If the Steelers get close to the end zone, he should see at least a few touches.
Dalton Schultz has only caught three touchdown passes this season, but two of those have come in the last four games. But he leads the Texans in catches and is second in yards behind Nico Collins.
He’s facing a Pittsburgh defense that allowed the fifth-most yards, fourth-most catches, and fourth-most touchdown catches by tight ends this season. The Steelers will have to afford extra focus to the speedy Collins, as well as defend against the jump-ball ability of Jayden Higgins.
That should open things up for Schultz near the goal line. It’s worth noting that all three of his touchdown catches this season have come from snaps within five yards of the goal line.
No team in the NFL has attempted more field goals than the Texans, averaging over three FGAs per game. Houston’s offense is much more efficient at home compared to on the road, converting on less than 34% of third down attempts and scoring touchdowns on just 45.45% of its red zone trips as a visitor. Fairbairn has recorded eight or more points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including each of the past nine contests. While he sees a spike in scoring inside NRG Stadium, he still averages 8.3 kicking points on the road. Monday’s game at Acrisure Stadium will present mild weather, considering the time of year. Temperatures will hover around freezing with sustained winds at 8 mph and gusts flirting with 20 mph at times.
Chubb was losing snaps to fellow RB Jawhar Jordan over the past month but with Jordon ruled out for the Wild Card Round (ankle), the veteran rusher jumps back up the depth chart and faces a familiar foe in the Steelers. He’s still running behind RB1 Woody Marks, but Chubb will be more active in the offense Monday. He drew only one carry in both Week 15 and Week 17 before going for 33 yards on six attempts versus Las Vegas in Week 16. Chubb will also have fresher legs after sitting out as a healthy scratch in Week 18. Houston has seen an uptick in handoffs over the past three games and with Pittsburgh bringing blitz and plenty of pressure, the Texans will utilize the ground game to take the heat of QB C.J. Stroud. Player projections vary after the injury update to Jordan, but those forecasts folding in the shift in the backfield peg Chub for 20+ yards with a ceiling at 30 yards.
The market is telling the story here. This passing total has dropped as low as 226.5, with THE BLITZ projecting just 205 yards after being lined at 230.5 and 227.5 at home earlier this season indoors vs. the Cardinals and Raiders. This is an indoor QB now heading outdoors in cold conditions, where his numbers fall off a cliff. CJ Stroud’s splits are stark. Outdoors, over his career, he averages just 199.6 yards per game, and only 214 yards on the road compared to 259 at home. This season, his completion rate drops from 66% to 61% and his passer rating from 101.4 to 85.5. Houston could also lean run-heavy if they control the game flow.
Nico Collins was out last week when Higgins cashed at +195, but even with Collins back in the lineup in Week 17, Higgins still found the end zone at +380. He has now scored in five of his 11 games since Week 8, quietly carving out a consistent role. The volume isn’t eye-popping, and he likely won’t see more than four or five targets, but his value comes near the goal line and stretching the field. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, the coaching staff clearly trusts his catch radius and ability to win in tight spaces. That matters against a Pittsburgh secondary that was leaking big plays late in the season and ranks among the worst units in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. Higgins can beat this defense vertically or win a one-on-one in close. Even as the potential No.3 option, this price is playable to +300.
Stroud is going to have a tough time in Pittsburgh. He doesn’t like the outdoors, especially the cold, and while this offensive line has been better, we’re comparing it to the last couple years. That’s like comparing pee to poop. The Steelers’ bread and butter is chaos and bringing blitz, which will limit Stroud’s time in the pocket and force him to scramble. All projections consulted sit at 13 yards and up.
Despite how it got in, Pittsburgh is in. And hosting a Houston team in one of the toughest venues in all of sports. Acrisure Stadium will undoubtedly be loud and cold, with temperatures that “feel like” sub-freezing Monday night. The Texans are all about that defense, entering the postseason with the top ranked stop unit in the land. But in order to cover the spread, you need to put some points on the board. That’s been challenging for C.J. Stroud & Co. – at least when venturing into the great outdoors. Houston averages less than 22 points per game in open-air venues and only 19.8 points per road game on the year – a 7.5-point slide compared to its production at home. Stroud is notoriously an “indoor cat”, with his career passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt all taking a nosedive outside.
The Houston defense is the best unit in this game, and I’m confident Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud can lead the offense to enough points to cover the number Monday night. Stroud ranked 10th in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the seventh-most air yards and a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt across the final six weeks of the regular season, after all. For comparison, Steelers vet Aaron Rogders ranked 19th and 20th in the two metrics while throwing for 6.5 YPA during the same stretch, and now he faces the second-ranked scoring defense in football.
The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.. This year, the imposing Steelers run defense has surrendered a puny 0.59 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-best rate in the league.. The Steelers defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs.
A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.6. . C.J. Stroud has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (179.0) this year than he did last year (205.0).. With a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target passers in the NFL.
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs.. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Nico Collins has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this season than he did last season (75.0).. Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.1% to 59.5%.. Nico Collins's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, compiling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.18 mark last season.
The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) vs. running backs this year (85.6%).. The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Dalton Schultz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a noteworthy drop-off in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 3.9% rate.
A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. After making up 11.4% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Kenneth Gainwell has had a larger role in the rushing attack this season, now sitting at 28.8%.. Kenneth Gainwell's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a significant gain in his running proficiency over last year's 18.0 mark.. Kenneth Gainwell's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, notching 4.77 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 3.84 rate last year.
A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).
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