NFL Wild Card Weekend wraps up Monday night with a clash between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers.
With C.J. Stroud moving from a controlled indoor environment to the cold outdoors, my Texans vs. Steelers predictions anticipate a muted passing performance from Houston’s quarterback.
Read on for my NFL picks for Monday, January 12.
Texans vs Steelers prediction
Texans vs Steelers best bet: C.J. Stroud Under 232.5 passing yards (-110)
Texans vs Steelers MNF same-game parlay
Stroud is an indoor QB playing an outdoor game on the road in the cold of January, and his splits outdoors are telling of a QB who doesn't like poor passing conditions.
The Pittsburgh backfield saw 14 targets last week as the Steelers' offensive play volume has been massive of late, averaging almost 70 plays a game over the last three games.
Calvin Austin was the Week 18 hero, and his role in the screen game should give him plenty of chances at hauling in high-percentage catches.
Texans vs Steelers SGP +575
- C.J. Stroud Under 232.5 passing yards
- Jaylen Warren Over 1.5 receptions
- Calvin Austin Over 1.5 receptions
Our big-ticket SGP: Wild Card Moonshot
Let's double up on a TD parlay that hit last week. Calvin Austin will lose snaps to DK Metcalf, but +900 for a TD this week is just rude after being the hero last week.
Connor Heyward is now the goal-line back and the guy scoring the new Brotherly Shove. Finally, Jayden Higgins is a person Stroud likes near the red zone because of his size. He will have chances with Pittsburgh, shading attention to Nico Collins.
Texans vs Steelers SGP
- Calvin Austin anytime touchdown
- Connor Heyward anytime touchdown
- Jayden Higgins anytime touchdown
Texans vs Steelers game predictions
Texans vs Steelers moneyline prediction
Everyone loves the Houston defense, but CJ Stroud's numbers fall significantly on the road and even more outdoors. It's going to be around freezing at game time, and with the action on the Steelers on the spread, this game could be decided by a field goal. I love Houston at home, but I worry about Stroud on the road in the cold. Books need the Texans and the Over.
Texans vs Steelers spread prediction
The early money came in on the Steelers at +3.5, which has pushed this number to a flat 3 and leaning to 2.5 at the point of writing. There could be a point Friday/Saturday where this moves to 2.5, which would open the books to a middle of 3. With the total falling, sitting with the +3.5 heading into Monday night might be a great feeling. The Steelers are live in a game where one mistake could be the difference.
Texans vs Steelers Over/Under prediction
This total has seen Under money pour in since it opened at 38.5, pushing it to a flat 38 in most places, which is the lowest total by six points on the Wild Card slate. Outside of the bad-weather game in Cleveland, Pittsburgh has not seen a sub-40 total since Week 4. Houston has been dictating totals as the Texans have seen four sub-40 totals in their last 10 (3-1 O/U). With the Steelers' play volume increasing and their defense's ability to blow coverage, I like the Over.
Texans vs Steelers odds
- Spread: Texans -3 (-110) | Steelers +3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texans -155 | Steelers +130
- Over/Under: Over 38 (-110) | Under 38 (-110)
Texans vs Steelers betting trend to know
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU in their last six playoff games. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Steelers.
How to watch Texans vs Steelers
| Location | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Monday, January 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Learn how to live stream Texans vs. Steelers for free tonight.
Texans vs Steelers latest injuries
Texans vs Steelers weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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