Michael Mayer Score a Touchdown Props • Las Vegas
M. Mayer
tight end TE • Las Vegas
Chiefs @ Raiders Picks & Props
KC vs LV Picks
NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Michael Mayer Score a Touchdown (Yes: +380)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
This is a strong price in a game that could feature some of the lowest scoring on the Week 18 slate. It’s the Kenny Pickett version of a struggling Raiders offense, but Michael Mayer was heavily involved last week, with Brock Bowers shut down. He led the team with 10 targets, caught nine balls for 89 yards, and saw a red-zone look, even if it didn’t turn into a score. The matchup against Kansas City is tough, but the game being indoors helps, and the price more than accounts for the risk. For what could be the most involved pass catcher in this offense, it’s worth a look.
Passing Completions
CO
Chris Oladokun o16.5 Passing Completions (-117)
Projection 22.43 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.. The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered a monstrous 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
Passing Attempts
CO
Chris Oladokun o26.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
Projection 32.89 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
Passing Attempts
Kenny Pickett u30.5 Passing Attempts (-132)
Projection 27.34 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Raiders are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (only 51.9 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Kenny Pickett to throw 28.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Passing Yards
CO
Chris Oladokun o146.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 236.54 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.. The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered a monstrous 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
Passing Yards
Kenny Pickett o169.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 178.92 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Raiders will be rolling out backup quarterback Kenny Pickett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. The Raiders are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Raiders to pass on 60.3% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the deficient Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered a staggering 75.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
Interceptions Thrown
CO
Chris Oladokun o0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+180)
Projection 0.75 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.. The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. The Raiders have intercepted 0.55 targets per game this year, ranking as the 10th-worst defense in the league by this statistic
Interceptions Thrown
Kenny Pickett u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-108)
Projection 0.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Raiders are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (only 51.9 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Kenny Pickett to throw 28.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year.. The Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
KC vs LV Consensus Picks
KC vs LV Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
Travis Kelce Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Kareem Hunt Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
K. Hunt
running back RB • Kansas City
Isiah Pacheco Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
I. Pacheco
running back RB • Kansas City
Tre Tucker Score a Touchdown Props • Las Vegas
T. Tucker
wide receiver WR • Las Vegas
Ashton Jeanty Score a Touchdown Props • Las Vegas
A. Jeanty
running back RB • Las Vegas
Chris Oladokun Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
C. Oladokun
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Hollywood Brown Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
H. Brown
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Kenny Pickett Score a Touchdown Props • Las Vegas
K. Pickett
quarterback QB • Las Vegas
KC vs LV Trends
Kansas City Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.60 Units / 31% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 24% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.65 Units / 16% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.10 Units / 5% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.95 Units / 9% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the Moneyline in 1 of their last 11 away games (-14.28 Units / -79% ROI)
KC
LV
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 20 games (-12.40 Units / -39% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 22 games (-11.65 Units / -43% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 11 away games (-10.45 Units / -83% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have only covered the Spread in 1 of their last 11 away games (-9.90 Units / -82% ROI)
KC
LV
Las Vegas Trends
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.95 Units / 34% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Over
Under
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.85 Units / 36% ROI)
Over
Under
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.75 Units / 27% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.85 Units / 9% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have only hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 20 games (-17.60 Units / -71% ROI)
KC
LV
The Las Vegas Raiders have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 20 games (-11.80 Units / -47% ROI)
KC
LV
The Las Vegas Raiders have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 5 of their last 20 games (-10.85 Units / -47% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 20 games (-9.75 Units / -43% ROI)
Over
Under
The Las Vegas Raiders have only covered the Spread in 6 of their last 20 games (-9.60 Units / -43% ROI)
KC
LV
