Colts @ Texans Picks & Props

The Texans only scored 20 points in their last matchup with the Colts and Indy has held their opponent to less points in each divisional rematch this season. 

Houston still has plenty to play for. The Texans remain alive in the division race, and even if that falls short, holding onto the five seed is important to avoid a first-round matchup against a 12-win team. While Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel scored last week, their usage has been volatile and difficult to rely on. Nico Collins remains the clear focal point of this offense and now draws a favorable setup against an Indianapolis team starting a late-round rookie quarterback and playing for nothing. That opens the door for short fields and extra scoring chances. Collins has been priced much shorter than this at points throughout the season, making this number attractive. I’d buy him to +140.

The Texans have secured a playoff spot and can even still win the AFC South if the Jaguars shit the bed versus the Titans. While that scenario seems a little farfetched, Houston can still earn the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win in Week 18.

The Texans are at home to the Colts, who could be starting Riley Leonard over Philip Rivers at quarterback in the finale. Either way, this Texans defense is a tall task for any QB. 

Houston has given up more than 21 points only once on its eight-game run and has taken down some of the NFL best quarterbacks along the way. C. J. Stroud and the offense do their best work inside NRG Stadium, where Houston averages 6.2 points more than on the road.  

This spread sits short of the key number of -10 at some shops while other books are already dealing the Texans as high as -10.5 in Week 18. Get that -9.5 now.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.. Nico Collins has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.7% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among WRs.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog this week.. The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most adjusted yards in the league (266.0 per game) versus the Colts defense this year.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog this week.. The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in the NFL this year.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.. The model projects Nico Collins to notch 8.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.. The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the worst unit in football this year in defending receivers.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.. The leading projections forecast Dalton Schultz to notch 6.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.. The Colts defensive tackles rank as the 9th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.. The Colts defensive tackles rank as the 9th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.