It's been a strong season for Travis Etienne, who has 13 touchdowns, of which seven were rushing and six were in the passing game. He’s hit real form in the past month, too, with six touchdowns in that span. He’s scored the first touchdowns in three games this season, more than any other Jaguars player, and is a heavy favorite here.
This number is over priced because of a contract incentive for Tony Pollard, but this Jags defense is incredible against the run and needs to win to win the division.
It’s a good time to back the Titans’ offense, which has scored more than 110 points over its last four games and gets favorable weather to close out the season. Jacksonville can be competitive, but there’s also a real chance the Jaguars limit or pull starters in this spot. This is an excellent price on a true WR1. Rookie Elic Ayomanor led the team last week in routes, snap share, and targets, and cashed a red-zone TD at +400. Cam Ward has taken a clear step forward in December, and this number is being priced like a WR4 in a mediocre offense. I’d buy this to +300 or +330.
With this spread growing from Titans +10.5 to +13, the opportunity for a backdoor cover grows wider.
Tennessee has been one of the best bets in football down the stretch, going 5-3 ATS in the past eight outings. The Titans have been particularly feisty over the last four contests, going 2-2 SU and ATS with those two losses coming by one score.
What’s more, interim head coach Mike McCoy is trying to boost his resume ahead of the 2026 hiring session and would love nothing more than to stick it to his former employer in Week 18.
“If we go in there and beat them, and all of a sudden somebody else – Houston - ends up winning, they win the division,” McCoy told the media on Monday morning. “Things like that. It's an opportunity to go out there and do something like that against a division opponent."
Jacksonville still has an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and a Week 18 win also clinches top spot in the AFC South. The Jaguars have won seven straight, which includes a 25-3 road victory over the Titans. Additionally, Jacksonville has an average margin of victory of 17 points while allowing the lowest EPA per play during the seven-game heater. I also value Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranking fourth in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for an impressive 8.2 yards per attempt over the stretch.
While I don’t believe the Titans will stun the Jags, I could see Jacksonville playing it safe in the second half – possibly sitting starters - and leaving the backdoor open for the big underdog. Tennessee is putting forth its best football of the season, going 2-2 SU in its last four games with those losses decided by one score. The Titans’ offense has come to life, with outputs of 24, 26, 26, and 34 points and rookie QB Cam Ward is making some impressive plays along the way. What’s more, Tennessee interim coach Mike McCoy is trying to stay in the conversation for next season or at least pad his resume for a new job in 2026. The team has been one of the better bets in the second half of the schedule, posting a 5-3 ATS mark in their last eight outings.
Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.. This year, the formidable Jaguars defense has surrendered a puny 61.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 5th-lowest rate in football.. The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 13.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and traits of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.78 seconds per play) will play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.. Trevor Lawrence grades out as one of the least accurate passers in football this year with a 60.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 13th percentile.
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 13.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and traits of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.78 seconds per play) will play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week.. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 13.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and traits of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.78 seconds per play) will play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week.. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
An extreme running game script is implied by the Titans being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.. The Titans offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
An extreme running game script is implied by the Titans being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.. When it comes to air yards, Tony Pollard grades out in the towering 78th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a colossal 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. The Titans offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
An extreme running game script is implied by the Titans being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.. In this week's game, Chig Okonkwo is forecasted by the model to position himself in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 7.1 targets.. Our trusted projections expect Chig Okonkwo to be much more involved in his team's passing offense in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.9% in games he has played).
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 13.5 points.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 46.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a colossal 59.4 per game on average).. Trevor Lawrence has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).. This year, the tough Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a paltry 4.85 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 25th-smallest rate in the league.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.
An extreme running game script is implied by the Titans being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to run on 49.3% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has conceded a feeble 88.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the best in football.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.
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