Steelers @ Browns Picks & Props

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard game plan. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in football. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (81.9%) to tight ends this year (81.9%). The Steelers defense has given up the 2nd-most receiving touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.67 per game this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.9 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week. After averaging 7.0 air yards per game last season, Darnell Washington has shown good development this season, now sitting at 15.0 per game. Darnell Washington's 20.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 10.0. The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Cleveland's unit has been excellent this year, profiling as the best in football.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.9 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week. With an elite 22.5% Red Zone Target Share (99th percentile) this year, Kenneth Gainwell rates among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in football. Kenneth Gainwell's 23.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 7.4. The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board. Kenneth Gainwell's 92.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a meaningful gain in his receiving ability over last season's 74.4% mark.

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard game plan. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in football. Jerry Jeudy places in the 82nd percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a colossal 55.0 figure this year. This year, the deficient Steelers defense has given up a whopping 72.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-largest rate in football.

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to run the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. While Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accounted for 2.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Pittsburgh's passing offense near the end zone this week at 11.9%. The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board. Marquez Valdes-Scantling's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 44.0% to 47.9%. The Browns defense has allowed the 7th-most receiving touchdowns in football to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.9 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week. Aaron Rodgers is more comfortable in the pocket and has accounted for just 0.0% of his team's rushing play calls near the end zone this year, putting him in the 2nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks. The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board. Aaron Rodgers's 67.2% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a significant boost in his throwing precision over last season's 63.8% rate. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Cleveland's unit has been excellent this year, profiling as the best in football.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard game plan. The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in football. The Steelers defense has surrendered the 6th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.73 per game this year. Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.67 per game) against the Steelers defense this year.