Chiefs @ Titans Picks & Props

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87%) to TEs this year (87.0%). When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Kansas City's unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the best in football.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the poor Titans defense has surrendered a whopping 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-worst rate in the league.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the end zone in this week's game (21.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.6% in games he has played). The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.9% red zone pass rate. When it comes to air yards, Tony Pollard ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, averaging a whopping 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.3% to 81.7%. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league against the Chiefs defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. In this week's contest, Gardner Minshew is predicted by our trusted projection set to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.7. With zero red zone rush attempts this year, Gardner Minshew's one-dimensionality makes him a no threat in Kansas City's rushing attack near the end zone.