Packers QB Jordan Love has looked very sharp the past three games, ranking out at the No. 1 passer in EPA per play since Week 11. The Cheeseheads are moving the chains on third downs and scoring TDs at an 80% inside the red zone during that span. Chicago’s playbook under new head coach Ben Johnson seems to be getting better by the week and hung 425 yards on the Eagles defense last Friday. That game saw Chicago picked up 28 first downs and dominate the football for more than 39 minutes. The cold forecast for Lambeau has money coming in on the Under, which knocked this total off the key number of 44 points. I'm buying back the Over before game time.
Moore has only cashed the Over in catches once in his last four outings, but there’s going to be more targets for him without Odunze lining up. Williams will be relying on Moore to be a focal point, and I don’t see any issues with him having at least four receptions.
Love has 14 TDs in six road appearances compared to just five touchdowns at Lambeau Field in 2025. He’s cashed the Under in TDs in four straight home games, failing to throw for a single touchdown in each contest.
Williams is averaging 226.1 yards per game on the road this season, and he’s hit the Over in two of his previous four away appearances. The Packers have a very good pass defense, but Williams has shown the ability to step up when it counts this year, and he’ll need to in this one.
The Packers are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games but have gone 3-7 ATS during that span. The Bears are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 contests. They are coming off their best win of the year after beating the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on the road. Ben Johnson has Chicago's offense firing on all cylinders. The line has played much better over the last few weeks with the RB duo of Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift piling up yards. Meanwhile, their defense leads the NFL with 2.2 takeaways per game. Spotting them nearly a touchdown is too much, especially in a divisional game which tend to be competitive.
I’m fully buying into this Bears offense. Kyle Monangai was the best value last week, but his number has moved too much for Week 14, so I’m turning to another rookie: Coltson Loveland at +425. Loveland has two red-zone targets over his last three games and turned one into a touchdown. He’s contributing outside the red zone as well — he tied for the team lead with six targets against the Eagles and led all Bears pass catchers with 63 air yards. Cole Kmet found the end zone last week, but at +425, I’m happy to back the tight end running 70% of the routes and lining up all over the formation. I’m riding Ben Johnson’s offense weekly from here on out.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in football vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year (72.0% Adjusted Completion%).. Opposing teams have run for the 8th-fewest TDs in the league (0.75 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in football vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year (72.0% Adjusted Completion%).
A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. With a sizeable 48.0% Route% (82nd percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift rates as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.. The projections expect D'Andre Swift to accrue 3.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower rush volume.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the poor Chicago Bears pass defense has conceded a massive 86.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 2nd-worst rate in football.. The Bears pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus TEs this year, giving up 8.20 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in football.. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Chicago's LB corps has been awful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 6.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 53.9% of their plays: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The model projects the Packers to call the 4th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Christian Watson's 9.9 adjusted yards per target this year shows a material drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 10.9 mark.. Christian Watson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a remarkable drop-off in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 5.1% figure.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. In this contest, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the model to place in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.2 targets.. Josh Jacobs has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 11.3% this year, which places him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Josh Jacobs rates as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an outstanding 20.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Chicago's LB corps has been awful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 10th-most run-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.0% run rate.. The most plays in the league have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).
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