Giants @ Patriots Picks & Props

Maye cleared this week’s rushing line of 21.5 in his last game and has done so in four of his past seven, averaging 25.5 rushing yards per outing this season. Considering Maye’s rushing ability and the Giants’ struggles against mobile quarterbacks, it’s the smart play on MNF.

Austin Hooper missed Week 11 due to a concussion but was back in action versus the Bengals last Sunday. The tight end grabbed three of four passes his way for 39 yards – his biggest effort of 2025. Hooper can build on that in Week 13, especially with TE1 Hunter Henry nursing a toe injury heading into Monday Night Football. While Henry is expected to play against the Giants, he was limited in practice this week. New England runs the fifth highest rate of 12 personnel and will even throw out three tight ends (sixth highest 13 personnel rate), which it might do more on Monday considering the loss of standout LT Will Campbell. All of Hooper’s Week 13 forecasts come in above his receiving yards total of 10.5 O/U, with most at 12-plus and a ceiling of 15 yards receiving. He’s finished with 11 or more yards in seven of his 11 games this season, including three of his last four.

Ever since Mike Kafka (now interim head coach) took over play calling, Tracy has emerged as a potent piece of the New York passing game. It makes sense considering Tracy started his college career as a wide receiver before transitioning to running back at Purdue. He’s drawn three or more targets in four of his last five games and in seven of his 10 games overall. And since fellow RB Cam Skattebo went down, Tracy has caught three-plus balls in three of his last four outings (at least an 11% target share in three of those four), including seven catches for 119 total receiving yards the last two weeks. Player projections for Week 13 call for between 2.3 and 2.8 receptions for Tracy versus New England.

Game script for Monday’s non-conference contest says the Patriots are playing with a lead in the second half, which lends itself to plenty of handoffs and a likely share of duties in the backfield – including inside the red zone. Stevenson recorded only 22 snaps in his first game back from a painful toe injury that cost him three games. He received six carries for a total of five yards versus the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12 (along with two targets for one five-yard reception), however, three of those seven touches did come inside the red zone. He faces a New York defense getting steamrolled by running backs, especially over the past five weeks. The Giants have given up the most rushing yards per contest since Week 8. New York lugs the second worst defensive red zone TD rate to Foxborough (71.43%) and has allowed the second most touchdowns to rival running backs this season.

Jaxson Dart returns from concussion protocol after missing two games in which Jameis Winston led the offense to 47 points. Most of that scoring came early, and with Dart back, the offense may start slower. He had averaged 45 rushing yards over his last seven games, but his scrambling should be limited coming off injury, and he’ll be surrounded by backups at most positions. New England scored 26 points last week despite red-zone struggles, and OC Josh McDaniels hinted at more creativity. The Patriots also rank fifth in first-half scoring. The Giants’ defense is banged up, with Dexter Lawrence and both starting linebackers unlikely to play, offsetting New England’s O-line issues. With Dart easing in and New York’s offense likely muted, the Patriots should finish drives against the league’s 31st-ranked red-zone defense.

Only the Steelers allow more receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than the Giants, who have also conceded 12 WR TDs which ranks as tied for the eighth most in football. It also helps that it's Drake Maye and a handful of high-priced WRs on Monday night. It was Mack Hollins who had the most WR targets (six) in Week 12 vs. the Bengals and his 78% route share paced all New England offensive players. He is also tied for the WR lead in RZ targets since Week 9, as Stefon Diggs' usage is oddly trending down. Do I feel confident with a Mack Hollins TD to wrap up Week 13? Not really, but the usage and price are the most important things here. The matchup doesn't get any easier either. I'd play this to +260. 

The Pats drafted Henderson early in the second round after a fantastic career at Ohio State. Henderson broke out with a 75-yard performance against the Browns in Week 8 and had a career-high 147 rushing yards versus the Bucs in Week 10. There was some concern that his role would decline following the return of Rhamondre Stevenson last week. However, Stevenson finished with six carries for just five yards while Henderson logged 18 carries for 66 yards. This week Henderson and the Pats face a Giants squad that has been getting gashed on the ground. The Giants are dead-last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (157.2), yards allowed per carry (5.9), and DVOA against the run. 

The Giants haven’t won on the road all season, and the Pats have rolled off nine straight wins with quarterback Drake Maye pacing the NFL in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage during the run. Plus, New York entered Week 12 ranked 28th in defensive DVOA and has allowed the third-most points per game.

The New York Giants defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.5 per game) this year.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.. This year, the shaky Giants defense has allowed a monstrous 0.33 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the biggest rate in the league.

The Giants are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The Giants have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.. While Wan'Dale Robinson has received 12.5% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of New York's offense near the goal line in this contest at 26.8%.. After averaging 41.0 air yards per game last season, Wan'Dale Robinson has seen marked improvement this season, now boasting 76.0 per game.. Wan'Dale Robinson's 61.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 49.4.

The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Giants to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Jaxson Dart to attempt 31.8 passes in this game, on balance: the fewest out of all QBs.. Jaxson Dart is positioned as one of the weakest QBs in football this year, averaging 158.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's collection of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

The Patriots are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are forecasted by the model to call only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The New York Giants defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.5 per game) this year.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.. This year, the weak Giants pass defense has given up a massive 85.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the highest rate in the NFL.. The New York Giants safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Patriots are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are forecasted by the model to call only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Stefon Diggs has run fewer routes this year (69.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.6%).. After totaling 64.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has gotten worse this year, now boasting 56.0 per game.

The New York Giants defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.5 per game) this year.. Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to earn 5.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.. Hunter Henry has compiled a monstrous 42.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.. Hunter Henry comes in as one of the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an outstanding 44.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

The Patriots are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. The Giants defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 6.08 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Patriots are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. The Giants defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 6.08 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Giants have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.. Jaxson Dart has averaged 5.9 rush attempts per game this year, one of the largest rates in the league when it comes to quarterbacks (92nd percentile).. Jaxson Dart isn't afraid to run the ball, making up 19.9% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among quarterbacks.. With a remarkable total of 36.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (100th percentile), Jaxson Dart rates as one of the leading running quarterbacks in football this year.. With a stellar record of 2.14 yards-after-contact (76th percentile), Jaxson Dart stands as one of the leading rushing QBs in football this year.