Bills @ Steelers Picks & Props

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. Khalil Shakir has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.5% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. Khalil Shakir grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching an outstanding 79.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs. This year, the shaky Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up a whopping 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in football.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. While Dawson Knox has received 7.5% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Buffalo's pass game near the end zone in this game at 12.7%. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (80.9%) versus TEs this year (80.9%). This year, the porous Steelers defense has allowed a massive 0.64 receiving TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in the league.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. When talking about air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a whopping 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards). As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. James Cook's 96.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks an impressive improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.7% figure. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89%) to RBs this year (89.0%).

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. With a top-tier 14.7% Red Zone Target Rate (78th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in the league. Dalton Kincaid has put up a whopping 44.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. Dalton Kincaid's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.0% to 80.6%.

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. DK Metcalf slots into the 87th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 61.7 figure this year. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. DK Metcalf ranks in the 88th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a fantastic 0.42 per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. Josh Allen's 69.9% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a material progression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.7% mark. This year, the shaky Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up a whopping 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in football. The opposing side have rushed for the 7th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.73 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. Aaron Rodgers has not tried to carry the ball himself in the red zone at all this year. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. Aaron Rodgers has been one of the best TD passers in football this year, averaging an exceptional 1.73 per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.