Indianapolis needs a big day from Pierce in an important AFC South showdown with Houston. The Colts may have to pass more with the Texans selling out to stop the run and forcing the ball into the hands of banged-up QB Daniel Jones. Piece’s projections are very positive for Week 13, with most north of 50 yards and a ceiling of 62 yards. That well above his yardage prop total.
Taylor leads the NFL with 1,159 rushing yards but there are a few reasons to fade him on Sunday. He's been held to less than 60 rushing yards in two of his last three games with the Chiefs and Steelers shutting him down. With the exception of a Week 2 clash against Denver, most of Taylor's big games have come against bad defenses. The Texans have a strong D that allows just 73.5 rushing yards per game to running backs — the fifth-lowest number in the NFL. Most of Taylor's yardage has come on duo run plays (7.7 yards per rush) and outside zone runs (5.9 ypa). Houston allows just 3.4 yards per carry on duo runs while allowing 3.7 yards per outside zone run.
I’ve been backing Jayden Higgins for three straight weeks and he keeps delivering. He’s clearly the No. 2 option behind Nico Collins and has stayed productive even with Davis Mills, posting 13 catches, 135 yards, and two touchdowns over his last three games. With CJ Stroud likely returning in Week 13, Higgins should keep his red-zone role in a run game that hasn’t been reliable. He saw two inside-the-10 targets last week against Buffalo and converted both into catches and a score. I’d play this to +250.
The Colts have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, but the Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, capable of containing Jonathan Taylor. Houston's offense also gets a major boost this week with franchise QB CJ Stroud expected to return after missing the last three weeks. They won three in a row despite having Davis Mills under center. With Stroud back, they'll be better suited to take advantage of a Colts defense that ranks 24th in success rate. Indy is atop the AFC South, but the final six weeks will be crucial with four games against Jacksonville and Houston. This should be a dog-fight between two division rivals who have a lot at stake.
The Colts defense was on the field for almost 43 minutes in that OT loss at Kansas City and now takes on a well-rested rival. Houston gets a mini bye after besting Buffalo on Thursday and could have QB1 C.J. Stroud back from concussion in Week 13. The Texans’ defense is powering the team’s three-game winning streak, holding four of its last five foes to 19 points or less. Indy couldn’t get RB Jonathan Taylor going against Kansas City and QB Daniel Jones looked more like his former self than the revived version we’ve seen so far with the Colts. Houston is a Top 10 run stop unit and sits tied for third in total sacks (33). An update on Stroud’s status will likely tip this spread to a field goal, so if you’re selling the Colts and buying the Texans’ streak, you’ll want to get that half-point hook on the road underdog.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.
The projections expect the Colts to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The leading projections forecast Daniel Jones to attempt 36.2 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
The projections expect the Colts to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The leading projections forecast Daniel Jones to attempt 36.2 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.. Daniel Jones grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 228.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-most in football.. C.J. Stroud's passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 61.0% to 66.2%.
The projections expect the Colts to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The predictive model expects Michael Pittman to earn 8.1 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Michael Pittman has been a key part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 23.4% this year, which places him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The projections expect the Colts to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.. The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.5 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-most in football.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.5 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-most in football.
This week's line indicates a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3 points.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.5 plays per game.. C.J. Stroud has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (14.0).. C.J. Stroud's ground efficiency has been refined this season, averaging 6.83 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 5.89 rate last season.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Indianapolis's group of DTs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in football. in football.
Houston Trends
Indianapolis Trends