Saints @ Dolphins Picks & Props

The rushing TD field reads "0" on the back of Tua Tagovailoa's trading card this year. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Saints defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the deficient Saints defense has yielded a staggering 1.82 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 25.62 seconds per play. While Chris Olave has earned 25.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in New Orleans's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 31.5%. Chris Olave has notched quite a few more air yards this season (111.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game). Chris Olave's 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 45.5.

De'Von Achane has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 19.6% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among running backs. De'Von Achane has accrued a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage). De'Von Achane's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 22.4. With an outstanding rate of 0.33 per game through the air (98th percentile), De'Von Achane has been among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in football among RBs this year. This year, the anemic New Orleans Saints pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 90.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the worst rate in the league.

The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 25.62 seconds per play. With a remarkable 15.8% Red Zone Target Share (81st percentile) this year, Juwan Johnson places among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the NFL. Juwan Johnson has notched many more air yards this season (46.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game). Juwan Johnson's 39.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 28.0.

The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 25.62 seconds per play. This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has been torched for a colossal 76.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the worst rate in football. The Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 25.62 seconds per play. This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has been torched for a colossal 76.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the worst rate in football. The Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

With an elite 24.4% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle rates among the wide receivers with the highest volume near the goal line in football. Jaylen Waddle has posted quite a few more air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game). Jaylen Waddle's 63.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 43.8. With an exceptional rate of 0.42 per game through the air (88th percentile), Jaylen Waddle rates as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in football among wide receivers this year. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Saints defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).

When talking about air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 91st percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a remarkable 39.0 per game. Darren Waller rates in the 80th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a massive 28.1 figure this year. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Saints defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%). The Saints defense has been torched for the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.45 per game this year.