Etienne can scored touchdowns on the ground and through the air, with seven total TDs on the year. The Titans have allowed 15 touchdowns to rival running backs so far this season. Etienne is still getting the bulk of touches and RZ snaps. Head coach Liam Coen gushed about Etienne heading into Week 13 and I love getting him above EVEN money.
Lawrence has run at least five times in each of the past four games, going for 24 yards or more in three of those contests. The Titans have an underrated pass rush that has been playing well in recent weeks, which could spring Lawrence from the pocket for scrambles. He’s amassed 15 rushing yards or more in five of his last seven outings and projections call for 20-yards plus in Week 13 with come models as high as 26.5.
Score First Touchdown
Travis Etienne Jr. Score First Touchdown (Yes: +500)
The Jaguars have notched an eye-popping 113 pressures over the past four outings, and it's led to opposing quarterbacks scrambling for 20+ yards in three straight games.
Cam Ward spent the bye week looking at how he could use his legs to extend plays and create positive situations, and as such he's rushed for 30+ in the two games since.
Tennessee has one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL, and the Titans are likely to be behind the chains often as well as behind on the scoreboard. That will lead to an elevated number of passing downs, and should allow for him to easily clear his low rushing total.
It's been a rough season for Cam Ward but the rookie QB is trending in the right direction despite a poor supporting cast. Ward is coming off a 256-yard performance against Seattle's stingy defense. He has thrown for more than 220 yards in five of his last seven games. The two contests where he went below that number came against the Texans and Chargers who are second and third in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate. He'll have a much easier matchup at home against the Jags who rank 25th in defensive dropback success rate and passing yards allowed per game (240).
Chimere Dike operated as the Titans’ No. 1 receiver again last week and now has three touchdowns over his last three games, including two on special teams. He’s been most of Tennessee’s offense in November, and even if Elic Ayomar returns and Calvin Ridley sits, Dike should remain heavily involved against Jacksonville. He also saw two red-zone targets last week and converted both for a touchdown. On the season, he leads the receiver group with nine red-zone looks and six catches. He’s the likely WR1 in a game where Tennessee should be playing from behind.
Jacksonville ranks 12th in scoring with the Titans ranking 29th, allowing more than three touchdowns a game.
Jacksonville’s red zone defense has been poor, with opponents scoring touchdowns on nearly 62% of their visits. And while Tennessee hasn’t cashed in at a high rate, the frailties in this Jaguar secondary raise the odds of scoring chances improving.
The Jaguars should thrive off play action against a struggling Titan run defense. Tennessee also throws the ball at the second-highest rate in the league. The strengths of the two offenses match up perfectly with the weaknesses of the opposing defenses, which makes the low total a bit too low for me.
As long as the spread is under a touchdown, I’ll take the Jaguars to cover. They’re now unbeaten ATS on the road, with three wins and a push, after the three-point win over the Cardinals. Jacksonville also will hurt the Titans on the ground, where they rank 27th in yards per carry and 31st in rushing scores allowed.
Tennessee is also one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. The Titans rank 31st in sack rate allowed, and their poor rushing attack will make them one-dimensional against Jacksonville’s Top 5 rushing defense. And while Trevor Lawrence is turnover prone, this Titan defense doesn’t force many.
Cam Ward will find some success, but he’s going to be under pressure far too often in obvious passing situations. The Titans might yet again threaten a backdoor cover, but I expect Jacksonville to win by a touchdown or more.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average).. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.3%) versus wideouts this year (73.3%).. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's unit has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the league.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average).. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.3%) versus wideouts this year (73.3%).. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's unit has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the league.
The Jaguars are a 6-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.. The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.. The Tennessee defensive ends profile as the 7th-best DE corps in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This year, the imposing Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered a puny 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-smallest rate in football.. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.
The projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Jaguars are a 6-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.. The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Trevor Lawrence to throw 31.8 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
The projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This year, the imposing Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered a puny 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-smallest rate in football.. This year, the tough Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a puny 7.2 yards.. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.
The Jaguars are a 6-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.. The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.. With a lackluster 60.0% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) this year, Trevor Lawrence has been among the least on-target QBs in the NFL.
The Jaguars are a 6-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.. The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Trevor Lawrence to throw 31.8 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average).. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.3%) versus wideouts this year (73.3%).. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, allowing 9.91 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's unit has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the league.
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