Packers @ Lions Picks & Props

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. While Luke Musgrave has earned 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Green Bay's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 8.7%. Luke Musgrave is positioned as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, completing an excellent 82.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up significantly more air yards this year (86.0 per game) than he did last year (68.0 per game).

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The leading projections forecast Christian Watson to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (17.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played). After averaging 63.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Watson has shown good development this season, now pacing 100.0 per game.

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Romeo Doubs has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.4% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among WRs. Romeo Doubs has compiled many more air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game).

The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. Jahmyr Gibbs's 25.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 18.2.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. While Brock Wright has accounted for 3.9% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Detroit's passing attack near the goal line this week at 13.3%.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. In this contest, Jared Goff is forecasted by the projection model to total the 4th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.4. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Josh Jacobs has been in the 88th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a massive 16.7 mark this year. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Detroit's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. While Ross Dwelley has received 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Detroit's pass game near the goal line in this week's game at 5.8%.

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. In this week's contest, Jordan Love is predicted by our trusted projection set to total the 8th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.2. Comprising just 1.5% of his team's red zone run game usage this year (21st percentile when it comes to QBs), Jordan Love's lack of mobility makes him no threat with his legs near the goal line.