While Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels has only eclipsed this line twice this season — 233 yards in Week 1 and 231 in Week 5 — the Seahawks have allowed at least 229 passing yards in three straight games and four of seven this season. This should be a back-and-forth game, with the Commanders relying on the passing game throughout. We’ll take advantage of that with this best bet.
There’s nothing wrong with taking the square side in a high-scoring matchup, and I’m sticking with the Seahawks’ red-zone favorite—not the longer-priced Kenneth Walker. Does Walker deserve more work? Probably. But Seattle clearly trusts Zach Charbonnet when it matters most. Since Week 4, Charbonnet has 15 red-zone carries to Walker’s eight, and he’s turned four of them into touchdowns while Walker hasn’t scored once. Inside the 5-yard line, the split is even more telling—seven carries for Charbonnet to just one for Walker. He’s the back you want to bet on to find the end zone Sunday night.
Daniels will be under center on Sunday Night Football, his top target won’t. Receiver Terry McLaurin reaggravated his quad injury on Monday and will not suit up against the Seahawks. That’s a sizable loss to this offense, considering the competition. Seattle is among the defensive boogeymen this season, with the stop unit really taking shape in MacDonald’s second season with the Seahawks. They enter Week 9 sitting among the Top 10 in many of the “crown jewel” analytics, including No. 3 in Defensive DVOA at FTN. The heart of this group has been the defensive line, which is cooking up “Instant Pot” levels of pass pressure. Seattle is sixth in pressure rate and among the leaders in hurries, QB hits, and sacks. All of that chaos is coming despite MacDonald dialing up the blitz at one of the lowest rates in the land.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone in this contest (31.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.4% in games he has played).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has totaled far more air yards this year (125.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 93.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. Deebo Samuel Sr. has accrued significantly more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 38.2.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The Seattle cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The Seattle cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. Sam Darnold grades out as one of the most on-target QBs in football this year with an outstanding 68.3% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 76th percentile.. With a stellar 8.73 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold stands as one of the best per-play QBs in football.. This year, the weak Commanders defense has yielded a monstrous 257.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-worst in football.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The leading projections forecast Deebo Samuel Sr. to accrue 9.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among WRs.. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 27.3% Target% this season marks an impressive gain in his passing offense volume over last season's 18.6% rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. The Commanders defense has given up the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) versus RBs this year.. The Commanders pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus RBs this year, conceding 8.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the league.. The Commanders linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. This year, the poor Commanders defense has been gouged for a massive 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 7th-most in the league.. This year, the shaky Commanders defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a colossal 10.05 yards.. The Commanders linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 68.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-most among all teams this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been torched for the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (42.0) to running backs this year.