New Orleans @ Los Angeles Picks & Props

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Saints are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week. With a 60.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL in these situations has been the Saints. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 140.8 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Saints are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week. With a 60.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL in these situations has been the Saints. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 140.8 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).

The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 140.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume. This year, the porous New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed a monstrous 80.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 9th-largest rate in the league. This year, the feeble Saints defense has been gouged for a staggering 0.50 receiving TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 8th-largest rate in football.

The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 140.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume. After totaling -2.0 air yards per game last year, Kyren Williams has seen marked improvement this year, now sitting at 10.0 per game. Kyren Williams's 17.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 11.0.

The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 140.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume. While Puka Nacua has garnered 17.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Los Angeles's pass game near the end zone this week at 26.3%. Puka Nacua has totaled significantly more air yards this year (97.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Saints are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week. With a 60.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL in these situations has been the Saints. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 140.8 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).