With New Orleans starting a rookie under center vs. Los Angeles, we could see Taysom Hill also get some reps as a “quarterback” in Week 9. Hill won’t be passing the ball and will be more used as a runner, especially with RB Alvin Kamara not 100% heading into Sunday. Projections for Hill range from 12 yards rushing to more than 18 on the ground.
Tyler Shough could be under siege against an elite Los Angeles Rams pass rush, and one of the Saints’ counters will surely be to release Kamara as a checkdown option. He won’t even need much volume to cash such a low number. I also see the game situation nudging the visitors towards the passing game. If New Orleans is playing catch-up in the second half, Kamara becomes an even bigger factor as a receiver — and those are the type of short-yardage throws that L.A. may be willing to give up.
I’m taking my Week 9 big swing indoors, and it’s definitely not with the Saints’ offense. The Rams are coming off a bye, and the last time bettors saw them, they were spreading the ball around to every tight end on the roster. Colby Parkinson played nearly 50% of the snaps and caught all three of his targets for 47 yards. In comparison, Tyler Higbee—priced in the +300s—played just 37% of the snaps and totaled only 19 yards. Parkinson has also carved out a role in the red zone. Over the Rams’ last four games, he’s matched Higbee in red-zone targets. The Rams’ tight end situation is messy, which makes it the perfect spot to take a shot on a long-odds touchdown scorer.
Los Angeles’ defense has been exceptional in recent games, giving up scores of only three, seven, 20, and 23 in the past four. The Rams are tied for the third-fewest yards allowed per play (4.7) and are the top red-zone defense in TD rate (40%). The New Orleans Saints offense is a mess. Quarterback Spencer Rattler was given the hook for rookie Tyler Shough in the loss to Tampa Bay in Week 7, in which NOLA managed a measly field goal. New Orleans is the least explosive attack and has cracked the 20-point plateau only twice in its eight games. As for the Saints defense, it’s better than it looks on the surface. New Orleans checked Tampa Bay to just 212 yards this Sunday and is surprisingly stout in the red zone, holding its last four foes to a collective 6-for-14 in terms of TD success inside the 20-yard line. If you wonder about this Under, grab it now on the right side of the key O/U number of 44.
The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. After totaling -2.0 air yards per game last year, Kyren Williams has seen marked improvement this year, now sitting at 10.0 per game.. Kyren Williams's 17.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 11.0.
At a -14-point disadvantage, the Saints are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. With a 60.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL in these situations has been the Saints.. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 140.8 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).
The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. While Puka Nacua has garnered 17.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Los Angeles's pass game near the end zone this week at 26.3%.. Puka Nacua has totaled significantly more air yards this year (97.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to throw 38.6 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.
At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year.
At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year.
The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to throw 38.6 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.. With an exceptional total of 241.0 adjusted passing yards per game (87th percentile), Matthew Stafford stands as one of the leading quarterbacks in football this year.
The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. In this week's game, Kyren Williams is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 87th percentile among RBs with 3.7 targets.. After totaling -2.0 air yards per game last year, Kyren Williams has seen marked improvement this year, now sitting at 10.0 per game.
At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year.
At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average).. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year.
New Orleans Trends
Los Angeles Trends