Denver @ Houston Picks & Props

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Denver Broncos. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 135.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The model projects Courtland Sutton to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line in this week's contest (22.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played). As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (60.1% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Texans. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 135.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. Nico Collins has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 24.0% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Nico Collins rates in the 88th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a colossal 59.9 figure this year.

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (60.1% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Texans. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 135.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. This year, the porous Denver Broncos defense has yielded a massive 0.38 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing running backs: the 4th-largest rate in the NFL. The Denver Broncos defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (60.1% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Texans. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 135.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. Dalton Schultz has compiled a massive 36.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to TEs. Dalton Schultz's 35.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 87th percentile for tight ends.

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Denver Broncos. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 135.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Denver Broncos. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 135.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (60.1% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Texans. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 135.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. The projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.1 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most among all quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud's passing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 61.0% to 66.5%.

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Denver Broncos. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 135.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.