Green Bay @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

The leading projections forecast the Steelers as the 8th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in football (42.5 per game) this year. The model projects Jaylen Warren to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game near the end zone this week (72.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (88.2% in games he has played). The projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack near the end zone in this week's contest (11.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (41.0 per game) this year. With an exceptional 25.0% Red Zone Target Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Romeo Doubs has been among the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football. Romeo Doubs has put up far more air yards this year (81.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game). Romeo Doubs's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 48.6.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (41.0 per game) this year. While Josh Jacobs has received 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay's pass game near the end zone this week at 7.4%. The Steelers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (88.2%) versus RBs this year (88.2%). This year, the formidable Steelers run defense has conceded a puny 0.67 rushing TDs per game to opposing squads: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (41.0 per game) this year. After accruing 19.0 air yards per game last year, Tucker Kraft has seen marked improvement this year, now sitting at 26.0 per game. Tucker Kraft's 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 27.6. With an excellent ratio of 0.57 per game through the air (95th percentile), Tucker Kraft rates as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in the league among TEs this year.

The leading projections forecast the Steelers as the 8th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in football (42.5 per game) this year. The projections expect DK Metcalf to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (21.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played). DK Metcalf rates in the 93rd percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 66.9 figure this year.

The leading projections forecast the Steelers as the 8th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in football (42.5 per game) this year. This year, the poor Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered a colossal 0.83 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-worst rate in football. This year, the fierce Packers run defense has allowed a feeble 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-smallest rate in football.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (41.0 per game) this year. Jordan Love's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.9% to 69.5%. This year, Jordan Love has not scored any TDs on the ground. This year, the weak Steelers defense has yielded a colossal 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Steelers as the 8th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in football (42.5 per game) this year. Totaling zero red zone carries this year, Aaron Rodgers's lack of mobility makes him a no threat in Pittsburgh's rushing attack near the goal line. Aaron Rodgers's 68.6% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a significant progression in his throwing precision over last season's 63.8% figure.