While the Bucs felt the absence of key offensive weapons on Monday night, Mayfield still has Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, and Rachaad White to move the ball down the field.
New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 contests, and only the Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans are averaging fewer points per game. There’s a different confidence level with Mayfield at the controls for Tampa Bay – and there’s only one quarterback I’d want in clutch moments.
With Pro Bowl WR Mike Evans done for the year and Chris Godwin ruled out for another week, tight end Cade Otton will see plenty of targets from Baker Mayfield. Otton has racked up more than 50 receiving yards in his last three contests and he's averaging 65.7 receiving yards per game over that span. Last week he led the Bucs in receptions (7) and receiving yards (65) on a season-high nine targets. And that was despite having two more catches that were called back on controversial calls. That performance came against a stout Lions stop unit and this week he gets to face a Saints defense that ranks 27th in the league in DVOA against tight ends.
With Cade Otton’s price dropping to around +180, I’ll pivot to one of the more reliable tight ends in football. Juwan Johnson is at home, indoors, facing a Bucs team in a letdown spot after a big primetime game on a short week. Johnson rarely leaves the field, running routes on 83% of dropbacks while maintaining a solid 20% target share. The Saints have also been less effective on the ground in the red zone without Kendre Miller — Alvin Kamara has just one touchdown on 13 red-zone carries. This number is strong value for the clear 2A/B option in New Orleans’ passing game behind Chris Olave.
The Saints are 26th in offensive DVOA and 28th in EPA/play. They are averaging just 17.9 points per game and have been held below 20.5 in five of seven games. In the two games where they eclipsed this number, they barely went Over with 21 points in Week 2 and finished with 26 thanks to a defensive TD in Week 5. That struggling offense will be even worse after losing Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy to a season-ending injury on Sunday. The Bucs are 13th in defensive EPA while ranking fourth in defensive rush success rate. They've been more vulnerable through the air, but Spencer Rattler isn't a good enough passer to take advantage.
Tampa Bay not only plays on a short turnaround but this will be the Bucs’ second straight road game and third in four weeks. You also have a “letdown” looming after a big game on MNF and a possible “look-ahead” to a much-needed bye in Week 9. New Orleans defense played much better than the Week 7 final score would indicate, as the turnovers gave Chicago extra touches and excellent starting field position on offense. The Saints limited the Bears to 3-of-12 success on third down and gave up touchdowns on only two of Chicago’s six trips inside the red zone. New Orleans’ stop unit is improving, sitting No. 8 in EPA allowed per play since Week 5. New Orleans is the least explosive offense in the NFL and the Bucs' blitz-heavy schemes won't give NOLA time for downfield plays, leaving the Saints to lean on the run and short passing plays.
Sure, it’s a short week for the Buccaneers, and injuries are piling up. Still, the 1-6 Saints are averaging just 17.9 points per game while quarterback Spencer Rattler is throwing for just 6.2 yards per target with a 23rd-ranked adjusted EPA per play. For comparison, Tampa (5-1) heads into Monday Night Football in Week 7 averaging 27.5 points, while QB Baker Mayfield has aired it out for 7.9 YPA with the eighth-highest adjusted EPA per play.
The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. This year, the feeble Saints pass defense has conceded a monstrous 87.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-worst rate in the league.. This year, the feeble Saints defense has conceded a staggering 0.29 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate.. The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Rachaad White has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.8% this year, which puts him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.. This year, the feeble Saints pass defense has conceded a monstrous 87.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-worst rate in the league.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. Chris Olave has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 30.8% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Chris Olave has compiled far more air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projections to call 68.5 offensive plays in this game: the most on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. Juwan Johnson's 84.3% Route% this year reflects a significant progression in his passing attack utilization over last year's 66.6% rate.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.9%) versus tight ends this year (85.9%).
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. The New Orleans defensive ends rank as the worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projections to call 68.5 offensive plays in this game: the most on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New Orleans Saints, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 29.4 per game) this year.. Baker Mayfield has thrown a lowly 0.25 interceptions per game this year, checking in at the 86th percentile among QBs.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projections to call 68.5 offensive plays in this game: the most on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. Juwan Johnson's 84.3% Route% this year reflects a significant progression in his passing attack utilization over last year's 66.6% rate.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.9%) versus tight ends this year (85.9%).
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projections to call 68.5 offensive plays in this game: the most on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The predictive model expects Chris Olave to earn 10.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Chris Olave has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this season (31.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.2%).
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. With a high 45.4% Route Participation Rate (76th percentile) this year, Rachaad White places as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. The projections expect Rachaad White to garner 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.. This year, the feeble Saints pass defense has conceded a monstrous 87.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-worst rate in the league.
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