Tampa Bay @ New Orleans Picks & Props

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projections to call 68.5 offensive plays in this game: the most on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. With a sizeable 19.2% Red Zone Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Juwan Johnson rates as one of the TEs with the most usage near the end zone in football. Juwan Johnson has posted quite a few more air yards this season (46.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).

The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This year, the feeble Saints pass defense has conceded a monstrous 87.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-worst rate in the league. This year, the feeble Saints defense has conceded a staggering 0.29 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projections to call 68.5 offensive plays in this game: the most on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Chris Olave has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 30.8% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs. Chris Olave has compiled far more air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Rachaad White has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.8% this year, which puts him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs. This year, the feeble Saints pass defense has conceded a monstrous 87.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-worst rate in the league.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projections to call 68.5 offensive plays in this game: the most on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. With a top-tier 15.6% Red Zone Target Share (91st percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara stands as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league. When it comes to air yards, Alvin Kamara ranks in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 5.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Saints defense has conceded the 8th-most receiving touchdowns in football to WRs: 1.14 per game this year.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are predicted by the projections to call 68.5 offensive plays in this game: the most on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The leading projections forecast Cade Otton to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the goal line in this week's contest (17.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played). The New Orleans Saints pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (81.1%) versus TEs this year (81.1%).

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Baker Mayfield is not much of a rushing QB and has accounted for just 0.0% of his offense's run game usage in the red zone this year, ranking him in the 2nd percentile among QBs. With an impressive rate of 1.62 per game (81st percentile), Baker Mayfield ranks among the top touchdown throwers in football this year.