Dolphins @ Falcons Picks & Props

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At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. The predictive model expects Tanner Conner to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack near the end zone in this contest (13.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Bijan Robinson has accrued far more air yards this season (9.0 per game) than he did last season (-1.0 per game).. Bijan Robinson's 33.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Drake London has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Drake London rates in the 96th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 72.2 mark this year.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. When talking about air yards, Darnell Mooney ranks in the towering 81st percentile among wide receivers this year, averaging a massive 77.0 per game.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (78.6% Adjusted Completion%).

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. Jaylen Waddle has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 30.4% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The projections expect Kyle Pitts to be a more important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line in this game (25.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.8% in games he has played).. Kyle Pitts has compiled a whopping 36.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.. Kyle Pitts's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 30.4.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. While De'Von Achane has earned 14.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Miami's passing offense near the goal line this week at 19.8%.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. The rushing TD field reads "0" on Tua Tagovailoa's box scores this year.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (78.6% Adjusted Completion%).

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Kyle Pitts has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (90.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (75.7%).. In this week's game, Kyle Pitts is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 97th percentile among tight ends with 7.6 targets.. Kyle Pitts's 4.2 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects an impressive growth in his receiving skills over last season's 2.7 figure.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. Our trusted projections expect Tanner Conner to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game in this week's game (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.7% in games he has played).

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.1%) to wide receivers this year (72.1%).. The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks rank as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to accrue 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane's 21.0% Target Share this season signifies a remarkable gain in his air attack usage over last season's 15.3% figure.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's contest, Bijan Robinson is projected by the projection model to rank in the 99th percentile among RBs with 7.4 targets.. Bijan Robinson's 33.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. The model projects Jaylen Waddle to earn 8.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.. Jaylen Waddle has been one of the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an outstanding 3.8 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to call only 60.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 50.4 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.2 per game) this year.. Tua Tagovailoa's 68.0% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a material reduction in his passing accuracy over last year's 73.5% figure.

The Falcons are a big 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 51.4% red zone pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (78.6% Adjusted Completion%).. The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks rank as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to call only 60.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 50.4 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.2 per game) this year.. Tua Tagovailoa's 68.0% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a material reduction in his passing accuracy over last year's 73.5% figure.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 50.4 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.2 per game) this year.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (78.6% Adjusted Completion%).. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency this year, allowing 8.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the league.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Atlanta's unit has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to call only 60.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 50.4 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.2 per game) this year.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.

The Falcons are a big 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In this contest, Kirk Cousins is forecasted by the projections to total the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 32.6. . Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to accrue 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane's 21.0% Target Share this season signifies a remarkable gain in his air attack usage over last season's 15.3% figure.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. Our trusted projections expect Tanner Conner to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game in this week's game (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.7% in games he has played).. After accumulating 8.0 air yards per game last season, Tanner Conner has gotten better this season, now pacing 15.0 per game.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. When talking about air yards, Darnell Mooney ranks in the towering 81st percentile among wide receivers this year, averaging a massive 77.0 per game.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.1%) to wide receivers this year (72.1%).

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. The model projects Jaylen Waddle to earn 8.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.. While Jaylen Waddle has been responsible for 19.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Miami's pass game in this week's contest at 25.0%.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Kyle Pitts has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (90.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (75.7%).. In this week's game, Kyle Pitts is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.9 targets.. Kyle Pitts has compiled a whopping 36.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's contest, Bijan Robinson is projected by the projection model to rank in the 98th percentile among RBs with 6.3 targets.. Bijan Robinson has accrued far more air yards this season (9.0 per game) than he did last season (-1.0 per game).. Bijan Robinson's 33.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Bijan Robinson's 69.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a remarkable reduction in his running proficiency over last season's 81.0 mark.

The Falcons are a big 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Falcons as the 8th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 43.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. Opposing offenses have run for the most adjusted yards in football (164 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.. The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 26th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Falcons defense owns the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 4.84 adjusted yards-per-carry.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Atlanta's group of DTs has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the league. in the league.