Miami @ Atlanta Picks & Props

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.6% red zone pass rate. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. The predictive model expects Tanner Conner to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack near the end zone in this contest (13.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. The projections expect Kyle Pitts to be a more important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line in this game (23.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.8% in games he has played). Kyle Pitts has compiled a whopping 36.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends. Kyle Pitts's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 30.4.

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.6% red zone pass rate. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. Jaylen Waddle has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 30.4% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. Drake London has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Drake London rates in the 96th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 72.2 mark this year. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.6% red zone pass rate. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. While De'Von Achane has earned 14.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Miami's passing offense near the goal line this week at 20.3%.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. Bijan Robinson has accrued far more air yards this season (9.0 per game) than he did last season (-1.0 per game). Bijan Robinson's 33.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (78.6% Adjusted Completion%).