The Bears aren’t the finished article yet, but they’ve covered in three of four games as an underdog and two of three games on the road. They’re improving every week and will be confident against a Ravens team looking to find its feet and a quarterback in Lamar Jackson who won’t be fully healthy yet.
Cole Kmet exited the last game with a back injury, which could open the door for rookie tight end Colston Loveland in a strong matchup against the worst scoring defense in the league. If Lamar Jackson returns, it could also boost the Bears' pass rate. Monitor this situation closely. If Kmet is ruled out and Loveland steps into a full-time TE1 role, this should be priced around +280 to +300. After Kmet’s injury in Week 7, Loveland ran more routes than anyone on the team outside of DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. The Bears have gone over their team total in all six games this season. With the run game heating up, the play-action should open things up even more for the tight ends.
The more I look at this matchup, I’m not sure a bye week will fix everything for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is expected back under center, but this defense remains one of the worst in the league, entering Week 8 near the bottom of most major defensive measurements. The Bears are riding a four-game winning streak and while those victories have come against some softer foes – Dallas, Las Vegas, Washington, New Orleans – those rival defenses aren’t any worse than the Ravens at this point. The rushing attack is the key for the Bears. Chicago’s ground game is fueling those winning ways, ranked No. 7 in EPA per handoff since Week 3 and boasting one of the best run block win rates. It’s marched for 367 yards the past two games and takes on horrible Ravens’ run stop.
The Ravens may pass less in this game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may go down.. With an extraordinary 25.0% Red Zone Target% (94th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews stands as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. Mark Andrews slots into the 87th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 36.8 figure this year.. This year, the anemic Chicago Bears defense has given up a monstrous 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-highest rate in the league.
The Ravens may pass less in this game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may go down.. While Zay Flowers has received 16.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore's pass game near the goal line this week at 21.8%.. Zay Flowers slots into the 94th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a colossal 67.1 figure this year.. Zay Flowers's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 65.7% to 75.5%.
The Ravens may pass less in this game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may go down.. This year, the anemic Chicago Bears defense has given up a monstrous 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-highest rate in the league.. This year, the shaky Chicago Bears defense has been torched for a massive 2.50 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the highest rate in the NFL.. The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. While Lamar Jackson has received 28.6% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller part of Baltimore's run game near the goal line in this game at 21.7%.. Lamar Jackson's 70.9% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a noteable gain in his throwing accuracy over last season's 67.6% rate.. With a remarkable ratio of 2.00 per game (94th percentile), Lamar Jackson places among the leading touchdown throwers in football this year.. This year, the anemic Chicago Bears defense has given up a monstrous 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-highest rate in the league.
The Ravens may pass less in this game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may go down.
The Bears rank as the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Ravens may pass less in this game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may go down.. This year, the anemic Chicago Bears defense has given up a monstrous 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-highest rate in the league.. The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.55 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-most in football.
The Bears rank as the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Ravens may pass less in this game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may go down.. Zay Flowers has run a route on 94.7% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.. The projections expect Zay Flowers to notch 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs.. With an outstanding 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been as one of the leading WRs in the NFL in the NFL.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in football.. This week, D'Andre Swift is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 85th percentile among running backs with 3.7 targets.. With an impressive 12.0% Target% (86th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift rates among the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the league.. The Bears O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
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