Hurts has seen his rushing output shrink in recent weeks, including just 13 rushing yards vs the Giants three weeks ago. But let’s not forget, Philly fell behind 13-3 in that game and had to go pass heavy. Nick Sirianni was asked about Hurts’ role in the run game and he said its still a big part of what they do, just circumstances didn’t allow it. New York is getting improved pass pressure but has allowed the 4th most rush yards to QBs, including 48 yards to Bo Nix in last week’s collapse in Denver. Projections for Hurts sit in the mid-30s with a ceiling closer to 44. For those interested: Hurts 30+ rush yards and a ATTD +190.
Prior to last week's game against Denver's elite run defense, Dart had rushed for more than 50 yards in all three of his previous starts. This week the rookie pivot faces an Eagles defense that has given up the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (190). Philly allows the fifth-most scrambles in the league (19) while surrendering a whopping 9.1 yards per rush on those attempts. The Giants ineffective receivers will have a tough time gaining separation against a strong Eagles pass defense. That will force Dart out of the pocket as he tries to make plays with his legs.
This is a great price on a tight end who’s found the end zone four times since Jaxson Dart took over. His target rate has also climbed since Malik Nabers went down in Week 4. He was +400 to score last week and now faces an Eagles defense ranked in the bottom third in points allowed per game. Dart has shown he can move the ball — even against a strong Denver defense last week, he threw three touchdowns on just 15 completions. The Giants have also struggled to run the ball efficiently in the red zone, which only boosts the case for Johnson. Since Week 4, he’s caught four of five red-zone targets for three touchdowns. His red-zone usage is nearly identical to Tyler Warren’s in Indy — and Warren is +110 to score this week.
New York has surrendered the 10th most points per game and seventh-highest EPA per play while ranking 18th in defensive DVOA, while Philadelphia is 23rd in defensive DVOA with the fifth-lowest pressure percentage. The two teams combined for 51 points in their first meeting of the saeson, and Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts is also coming off his best game of the season against a tough Minnesota Vikings defense. Of course, New York just put up 32 points on the road against an elite Denver Broncos stop unit, too.
Hurts aired it out for 326 yards with a monster 14.2 yards per attempt and the highest EPA per play of the week against a tough Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 7. Additionally, wth the Giants topping the Eagles in their first meeting of the season season, I expect the Philly offense to keep the pedal down in this Week 8 rematch.
New York scored 34 points in the earlier win over Philly and followed it with a wild 33-32 Week 7 loss at Denver. The Eagles let it rip at Minnesota on Sunday, scoring 28 points and getting 326 passing yards and three touchdowns from QB Jalen Hurts. That Philly air attacks now takes on a Giants secondary potentially missing pieces after safety Jevon Holland and CB Paulson Adebo left Sunday’s game due to injuries. Intact, the G-Men weren’t great against the pass to begin with and watched Box Nix come alive in the fourth quarter, finishing with 279 yards and two touchdowns in that crazy rally. This total opened at 42.5 points and has moved to as high as 44.5 O/U at some shops on Sunday night. I’m betting the Over now, getting the low end of this total below the key stops of 43 and 44 points.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New York Giants.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced rush volume.. Our trusted projections expect Wan'Dale Robinson to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone in this game (27.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).. After averaging 41.0 air yards per game last year, Wan'Dale Robinson has posted big gains this year, now averaging 71.0 per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Giants defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.. Saquon Barkley has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.0% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Saquon Barkley has notched a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 77th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Saquon Barkley has been in the 88th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 19.4 figure this year.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Giants defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.. With an extraordinary 25.0% Red Zone Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith ranks among the wide receivers with the most usage near the end zone in football.. DeVonta Smith has accrued significantly more air yards this year (81.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game).. DeVonta Smith's 62.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 90th percentile for wideouts.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Giants defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.. Jalen Hurts ranks as one of the best precision passers in football this year with a fantastic 69.4% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Jalen Hurts has been one of the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.57 per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Giants defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.. Jalen Hurts ranks as one of the best precision passers in football this year with a fantastic 69.4% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Giants defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Giants defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.. Jalen Hurts ranks as one of the best precision passers in football this year with a fantastic 69.4% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. This year, the feeble New York Giants defense has conceded a monstrous 263.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 54.4% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. In this week's game, Jaxson Dart is forecasted by the projections to have the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.6. . Jaxson Dart comes in as one of the worst QBs in football this year, averaging 130.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 14th percentile.. Jaxson Dart rates as one of the least on-target passers in football this year with a 60.4% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 15th percentile.. This year, the formidable Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a meager 65.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-smallest rate in the league.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.. The Giants defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.. The predictive model expects Saquon Barkley to garner 4.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs.. Saquon Barkley has notched a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 77th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Saquon Barkley profiles as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an outstanding 17.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New York Giants.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced rush volume.. The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Philadelphia's group of safeties has been terrible this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.
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