San Francisco has gone into Seattle, New Orleans, and Los Angeles and come away with victories, including as +8.5 underdogs against the Rams. I don’t see why they can’t win in Houston, but I’ll take the +2.5 as insurance in case something wonky happens.
Let’s back the guy who started “National TE Day” — George Kittle. He’s +200 to score, which is a better value than Dalton Schultz at +165. Kittle is coming off a zero-catch game despite playing 90% of the snaps, and that should correct this week indoors in his second game back from injury. Last season, after posting his lowest output of the year (one catch), he followed it up with a season-high 151 yards on six receptions. Expect more involvement and a solid bounce-back spot here.
The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones.. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.3 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. This year, the anemic San Francisco 49ers defense has given up a staggering 0.43 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing running backs: the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-fewest TDs in football (0.57 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones.. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.3 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Right now, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (63.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. This week, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by the projections to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.7.
Right now, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (63.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. C.J. Stroud's passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 61.0% to 64.7%.. The San Francisco cornerbacks profile as the worst collection of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.
The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones.. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones.. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Right now, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (63.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Texans.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, San Francisco's collection of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
When talking about pass protection (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.. George Kittle's 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a material drop-off in his receiving skills over last year's 85.6% rate.. George Kittle's receiving efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a mere 4.64 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 12.46 figure last year.. This year, the tough Texans defense has allowed a meager 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-fewest in the league.. The Texans pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. tight ends this year, allowing 6.17 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
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