San Francisco @ Houston Picks & Props

Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.86 seconds per snap, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans as the 6th-quickest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. This year, the anemic San Francisco 49ers defense has given up a staggering 0.43 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing running backs: the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL. Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-fewest TDs in football (0.57 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.0 total plays in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Christian McCaffrey has put up a monstrous 25.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.0 total plays in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Texans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.0 total plays in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In regards to air yards, George Kittle grades out in the lofty 98th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, totaling a superb 51.0 per game.

Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.86 seconds per snap, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans as the 6th-quickest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The model projects Dalton Schultz to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the end zone in this week's game (19.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played). Dalton Schultz has accumulated a colossal 38.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among TEs.

Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.86 seconds per snap, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans as the 6th-quickest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The leading projections forecast C.J. Stroud to be a less important option in his offense's ground game near the goal line in this week's contest (6.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played). C.J. Stroud's passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 61.0% to 64.7%.

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.0 total plays in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Our trusted projections expect Mac Jones to throw 37.8 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.