San Francisco @ Houston Picks & Props

Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. This year, the anemic San Francisco 49ers defense has given up a staggering 0.43 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing running backs: the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL. Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-fewest TDs in football (0.57 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.0 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average).

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.0 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average).

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.0 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average).

Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. This week, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by the projections to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6. The leading projections forecast C.J. Stroud to be a less important option in his offense's ground game near the goal line in this week's contest (6.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).

The 49ers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Mac Jones. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the model to run 67.0 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a monstrous 63.7 per game on average).

Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The model projects Dalton Schultz to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the end zone in this week's game (19.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played). Dalton Schultz has accumulated a colossal 38.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among TEs.