New York @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by the predictive model to call 67.6 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. The predictive model expects Josh Reynolds to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (21.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played). Josh Reynolds has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (57.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game). Josh Reynolds's 42.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. The model projects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.0% red zone pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 133.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. The leading projections forecast Noah Fant to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (14.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.1% in games he has played).

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. The model projects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.0% red zone pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 133.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. The model projects Chase Brown to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's game (68.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (80.0% in games he has played).

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. The model projects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.0% red zone pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 133.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. While Ja'Marr Chase has been responsible for 25.7% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's pass game near the goal line in this week's contest at 33.6%.

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by the predictive model to call 67.6 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. This year, the anemic Bengals defense has conceded a whopping 1.29 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the largest rate in the NFL.

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by the predictive model to call 67.6 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. Breece Hall has notched a massive 10.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage). Breece Hall's 86.1% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a noteable boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 76.6% mark. With a terrible rate of just 0.00 rushing TDs per game (1st percentile), Breece Hall ranks as one of the worst rushing touchdown-scorers in the league this year.

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by the predictive model to call 67.6 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. The Bengals defense has surrendered the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 2.43 per game this year.