Tampa Bay @ Detroit Picks & Props

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. Rachaad White has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.0% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs. Rachaad White's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 94.0% to 100.0%.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. Jared Goff's 77.3% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a significant improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year's 72.0% figure. With an outstanding ratio of 2.00 per game (97th percentile), Jared Goff places among the best touchdown passers in football this year. The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on the back of Jared Goff's trading card this year. The Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the 6th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.67 per game this year.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. This year, the porous Lions defense has conceded a colossal 1.67 TDs through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the highest rate in football.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. Sam LaPorta has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.1% this year, which ranks him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Sam LaPorta's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for TEs. Sam LaPorta's 87.5% Adjusted Catch% this season represents an impressive improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 77.8% figure. With a terrific rate of 0.29 per game through the air (75th percentile), Sam LaPorta places among the best receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends this year.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 83.6% to 89.7%. Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the 99th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.86 per game.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to be much less involved in his team's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's game (49.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (64.1% in games he has played). Jahmyr Gibbs's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 18.2. Jahmyr Gibbs's 93.3% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a material improvement in his pass-catching skills over last season's 82.3% figure. With an excellent ratio of 0.14 per game through the air (80th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs places as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in the league among RBs this year.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. This year, the porous Lions defense has conceded a colossal 1.67 TDs through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the highest rate in football.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. While Cade Otton has earned 4.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Tampa Bay's offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 14.4%. The Lions defense has yielded the 8th-most TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.50 per game this year.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. Baker Mayfield is more comfortable in the pocket and has accounted for a mere 0.0% of his offense's run game usage in the red zone this year, putting him in the 3rd percentile when it comes to QBs. With an excellent rate of 1.71 per game (90th percentile), Baker Mayfield rates among the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year.