Las Vegas @ Kansas City Picks & Props

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. With a high 7.7% Red Zone Target% (77th percentile) this year, Isiah Pacheco stands among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume near the goal line in football. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 7th-best in football this year. Isiah Pacheco ranks in the 87th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an exceptional 0.17 per game.

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being a heavy -13-point underdog in this week's game. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 61.3% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate among all teams this week. The predictive model expects Michael Mayer to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest (24.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played). Michael Mayer's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 65.1% to 84.4%. This year, the shaky Chiefs pass defense has been torched for a whopping 91.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the worst rate in football.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast Rashee Rice to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone in this contest (20.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (11.8% in games he has played). Rashee Rice's 55.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for wideouts. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being a heavy -12-point underdog in this week's game. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 61.1% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate among all teams this week. With an elite 23.1% Red Zone Target% (88th percentile) this year, Jakobi Meyers rates among the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the NFL. Jakobi Meyers's 56.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 83rd percentile for wide receivers. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (75.9% Adjusted Completion%).

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being a heavy -13-point underdog in this week's game. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 61.3% of their chances: the 6th-greatest rate among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (75.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. Travis Kelce has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among tight ends. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 7th-best in football this year. Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 74.7% to 80.9%.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% red zone pass rate. The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 35.9 passes in this contest, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks. The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to be a more integral piece of his team's ground game near the goal line this week (25.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played). When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.