Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume. While Jaylen Warren has been responsible for 86.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Pittsburgh's rushing attack near the end zone this week at 53.4%. Jaylen Warren has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 11.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 86th percentile among running backs. Jaylen Warren's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 89.6% to 92.9%.

The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joe Flacco. The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.9% red zone pass rate. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joe Flacco. The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.9% red zone pass rate. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume. The model projects Jonnu Smith to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the goal line in this contest (15.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played). Jonnu Smith's 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a remarkable boost in his receiving skills over last season's 81.3% rate. This year, the deficient Bengals defense has given up a massive 0.83 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-highest rate in football.

The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joe Flacco. The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.9% red zone pass rate. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume. DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which places him in the 79th percentile among wideouts. DK Metcalf's 68.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 61.0. DK Metcalf ranks in the 96th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an excellent 0.67 per game.

The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joe Flacco. The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.9% red zone pass rate. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the model to call 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume. Making up a lowly 0.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year (3rd percentile among quarterbacks), Aaron Rodgers's lack of speed makes him no threat in the run game near the end zone. Aaron Rodgers's 68.7% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a material boost in his passing precision over last year's 63.8% figure. Aaron Rodgers has been one of the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 1.67 per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.