Chicago @ Washington Picks & Props

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -5.5-point underdogs. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This year, the feeble Commanders defense has allowed a whopping 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the highest rate in the NFL. This year, the imposing Commanders run defense has conceded a puny 0.60 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 8th-lowest rate in football. The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -5.5-point underdogs. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. After averaging 21.0 air yards per game last year, Cole Kmet has seen marked improvement this year, currently pacing 48.0 per game. Cole Kmet's 30.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 21.0. With an impressive ratio of 0.20 per game through the air (75th percentile), Cole Kmet rates as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among tight ends this year.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the projection model to run 68.3 offensive plays in this game: the highest number on the slate this week. This year, the poor Chicago Bears defense has conceded a massive 2.50 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the largest rate in the league. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the projection model to run 68.3 offensive plays in this game: the highest number on the slate this week. After accumulating 37.0 air yards per game last year, Deebo Samuel Sr. has posted big gains this year, currently sitting at 50.0 per game. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 56.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 38.2. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 81.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a substantial improvement in his pass-catching skills over last year's 63.6% mark. With a fantastic ratio of 0.43 per game through the air (91st percentile), Deebo Samuel Sr. has been among the top receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among wide receivers this year.

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -5.5-point underdogs. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This year, the weak Washington Commanders defense has allowed a whopping 1.20 receiving TDs per game to opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in the NFL. This year, the imposing Commanders run defense has conceded a puny 0.60 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 8th-lowest rate in football. The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the projection model to run 68.3 offensive plays in this game: the highest number on the slate this week. Zach Ertz has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends. Zach Ertz ranks in the 79th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.29 per game. The Bears pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) vs. TEs this year (85.6%). As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -5.5-point underdogs. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The leading projections forecast D'Andre Swift to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (7.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played). D'Andre Swift slots into the 86th percentile for RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 19.0 mark this year. This year, the imposing Commanders run defense has conceded a puny 0.60 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 8th-lowest rate in football.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the projection model to run 68.3 offensive plays in this game: the highest number on the slate this week. The Bears pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.2%) versus running backs since the start of last season (88.2%). This year, the deficient Chicago Bears defense has been torched for a staggering 0.75 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the worst rate in the NFL. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.