Buffalo @ Atlanta Picks & Props

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With an elite 23.3% Red Zone Target Share (88th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the end zone in the league. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year. Khalil Shakir checks in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a fantastic 82.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among wideouts. Khalil Shakir grades out in the 80th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an exceptional 0.29 per game.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach. The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Falcons this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest (21.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played). When talking about air yards, Kyle Pitts ranks in the lofty 87th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a remarkable 32.0 per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With a top-tier 16.7% Red Zone Target Share (81st percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks among the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league. As it relates to air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the lofty 95th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a monstrous 47.0 per game. Dalton Kincaid's 39.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in football: 91st percentile for TEs. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach. The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Falcons this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The predictive model expects Drake London to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense near the end zone in this game (32.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (23.1% in games he has played). As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach. The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Falcons this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. While Dawson Knox has received 3.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Buffalo's offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 12.0%. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year. As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year. James Cook's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 84.6% to 92.3%. The Falcons pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.2%) versus RBs since the start of last season (88.2%). Opposing squads have run for the 7th-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach. The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Falcons this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Bijan Robinson has accrued a colossal 8.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage). Bijan Robinson's 29.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 21.9.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year. Josh Allen's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.7% to 70.9%. Opposing squads have run for the 7th-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year. As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.