Detroit @ Kansas City Picks & Props

Jared Goff's throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 72.0% to 76.8%. With a fantastic rate of 1.71 per game (98th percentile), Jared Goff stands among the leading TD throwers in the league this year. Jared Goff has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the NFL when it comes to QBs (2nd percentile).

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week. At the moment, the most pass-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (65.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board. The Detroit Lions defense has been torched for the 4th-most receiving TDs in the league to wideouts: 1.40 per game this year.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week. At the moment, the most pass-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (65.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs. The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board. Patrick Mahomes has been one of the best TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 1.33 per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

With a top-tier 14.3% Red Zone Target% (76th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in football. Sam LaPorta ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 37.3 figure this year. Sam LaPorta's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 77.8% to 84.9%.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week. At the moment, the most pass-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (65.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. Isiah Pacheco has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 9.7% this year, which ranks in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs. The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board. Isiah Pacheco grades out in the 87th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a fantastic 0.17 per game.

With a remarkable 35.7% Red Zone Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown rates as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown has received a staggering 31.6% of his team's air yards this year: 84th percentile when it comes to WRs. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 89.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a significant progression in his receiving prowess over last season's 83.6% figure. With a terrific rate of 0.86 per game through the air (99th percentile), Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in football among WRs this year.

While Jahmyr Gibbs has earned 60.0% of his team's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Detroit's running game near the goal line this week at 49.5%. Jahmyr Gibbs's 24.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 18.2. Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 82.3% to 96.4%. With a fantastic ratio of 0.14 per game through the air (84th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to running backs this year. This year, the deficient Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a massive 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-biggest rate in football.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week. At the moment, the most pass-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (65.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. With a remarkable 19.4% Red Zone Target% (89th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce rates among the TEs with the most usage near the end zone in football. The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board. Travis Kelce's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 74.7% to 80.3%.