New England @ New Orleans Picks & Props

A passing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 58.2% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New Orleans Saints. The leading projections forecast this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 63.6 plays per game.

A passing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 58.2% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New Orleans Saints. The leading projections forecast this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 63.6 plays per game.

Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Patriots. The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 136.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Hunter Henry has posted far more air yards this season (56.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game). Hunter Henry's 45.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 97th percentile for tight ends.

Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Patriots. The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 136.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. While Stefon Diggs has accounted for 13.6% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in New England's pass game near the end zone this week at 25.6%. Stefon Diggs has accounted for a massive 28.1% of his team's air yards this year: 77th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Patriots. The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. While Rhamondre Stevenson has accounted for 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of New England's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 10.6%. After averaging -3.0 air yards per game last year, Rhamondre Stevenson has seen marked improvement this year, currently sitting at 8.0 per game.

Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Patriots. The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 136.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The New England offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board. The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 5th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 2.20 per game this year.

Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Patriots. The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 136.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The New England offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board. This year, the deficient Saints pass defense has conceded a staggering 93.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-worst rate in football.

A passing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 58.2% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New Orleans Saints. The leading projections forecast this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 63.6 plays per game.