Los Angeles @ Miami Picks & Props

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The projections expect the Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 6th-most pass-focused team in football in the red zone (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins. In this contest, Tua Tagovailoa is forecasted by the projection model to average the 8th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.9. Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 1.43 per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game. The model projects Hassan Haskins to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (5.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played). This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a whopping 79.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game. This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a whopping 79.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game. With a high 25.0% Red Zone Target% (91st percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston stands as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the end zone in football. Quentin Johnston has posted many more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game). Quentin Johnston's 59.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 52.2.

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game. With an excellent ratio of 1.33 per game (76th percentile), Justin Herbert ranks as one of the leading TD throwers in football this year. The running TD field reads "0" on the back of Justin Herbert's trading card this year. This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a whopping 79.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.9%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (70.9%).

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The projections expect the Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 6th-most pass-focused team in football in the red zone (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins. After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last year, Jaylen Waddle has made big progress this year, currently averaging 67.0 per game. Jaylen Waddle's 52.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 43.8.

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The projections expect the Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 6th-most pass-focused team in football in the red zone (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins. The projections expect De'Von Achane to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game near the end zone in this week's contest (19.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played). De'Von Achane has notched a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among running backs. (That might not seem like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game. This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a whopping 79.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The projections expect the Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 6th-most pass-focused team in football in the red zone (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins. Darren Waller grades out in the 100th percentile among TEs this year with a remarkable 27.1% of his team's air yards accumulated. With a fantastic 91.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (96th percentile) this year, Darren Waller has been as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.