Cleveland @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game near the end zone in this week's game (68.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.7% in games he has played). Jaylen Warren ranks in the 90th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 17.4 figure since the start of last season. Jaylen Warren rates as one of the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, completing an exceptional 91.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 77th percentile. Jaylen Warren ranks in the 93rd percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.25 per game. The rushing touchdown field reads "0" on Jaylen Warren's stats page this year.

A throwing game script is implied by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. This year, the deficient Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded a monstrous 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in football. The Steelers defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving TDs in the NFL to TEs: 0.75 per game this year.

The projections expect Jonnu Smith to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the end zone in this week's game (15.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.7% in games he has played). Jonnu Smith's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 81.3% to 86.8%. Jonnu Smith grades out in the 75th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.20 per game. This year, the shaky Browns defense has been gouged for a massive 0.60 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL. This year, the strong Cleveland Browns run defense has allowed a puny 0.60 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 8th-best rate in football.

A throwing game script is implied by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. The projections expect Jerry Jeudy to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the end zone in this contest (19.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played). When it comes to air yards, Jerry Jeudy grades out in the towering 90th percentile among wideouts this year, accumulating an impressive 91.0 per game.

With a top-tier 20.0% Red Zone Target Share (81st percentile) this year, DK Metcalf has been among the wideouts with the highest volume near the goal line in football. DK Metcalf slots into the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 58.4 figure this year. DK Metcalf's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 60.2% to 64.2%. With an exceptional ratio of 0.60 per game through the air (96th percentile), DK Metcalf ranks as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among wideouts this year. The Browns defense has been torched for the 4th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 1.40 per game this year.

A throwing game script is implied by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. This year, the deficient Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded a monstrous 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in football. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Pittsburgh's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

Aaron Rodgers has not tried to run the ball himself in the red zone at all this year. Aaron Rodgers's 68.3% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a significant gain in his throwing precision over last season's 63.8% figure. With a fantastic rate of 1.60 per game (93rd percentile), Aaron Rodgers has been among the leading touchdown throwers in the league this year. The running TD column reads "0" on Aaron Rodgers's player page this year. The Cleveland Browns defense has been gouged for the 7th-most TDs through the air in football: 2.00 per game this year.

A throwing game script is implied by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. This year, the deficient Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded a monstrous 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in football.