However, this game they are underdogs, and the Rams will likely be playing with a lead or in a one possession game for most of the game. This should give Corum enough workload to hit this low number against a defense that gives up 4.8 yards per carry.
The Daniel Jones hype train has been a fun ride, but Week 4 could be where it hits a bump. It’s a tough road matchup against a well-coached Rams team and an underrated defense. Jones hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season, but that’s been helped by game script—two of his games were effectively over by halftime, limiting the need to take risks. Still, when he has thrown, he’s been aggressive. According to Next Gen Stats, Jones ranks fifth in aggressive throw percentage, which tracks passes into tight coverage with a defender within one yard. That aggressive style could catch up to him this week as a 3.5-point road underdog, especially if the game script forces more passing. The last time he faced a Sean McVay defense, he threw three interceptions on 51 attempts. This could be a spot to target a turnover prop or defensive TD angle.
No wide receiver has more red-zone targets this season than Davante Adams. His current touchdown price of +130 isn’t ideal, but it's as short as even money at some books. After watching Matthew Stafford lock in on Adams inside the 20 last week, I’m comfortable betting this down to +115 in a strong matchup against the Colts. Last week, the Rams went just 1-for-4 in the red zone, with Kyren Williams failing to convert any of his three red-zone carries. This week, they could catch a break with Colts starting corner Kenny Moore looking very questionable due to an Achilles issue. It’s an indoor game with a total pushing 50, and there’s going to be scoring at SoFi on Sunday. Adams might have the most reliable red-zone role of any pass-catcher in the league.
Xavien Howard ranks 98th out of 102 qualified corners in PFF coverage grade this season, and CB1 Charvarius Ward will already have his hands full defending Puka Nacua. Enter Davante Adams, who has found paydirt in two of his three games with the Rams. With nickel CB Kenny Moore II sidelined due to an Achilles injury, Los Angeles presents a huge aerial mismatch for Indy, and Adams will remain Matthew Stafford’s top option in the red zone.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. Daniel Jones's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.4% to 69.2%.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. The opposing side have run for the 6th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.70 per game) against the Rams defense since the start of last season.
The predictive model expects the Rams as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 129.7 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.. Kyren Williams has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 11.8% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. Kyren Williams grades out in the 96th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a remarkable 0.25 per game.
The predictive model expects the Rams as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 129.6 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.. In this week's contest, Matthew Stafford is expected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.8. . Since the start of last season, the feeble Colts defense has yielded a massive 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the largest rate in football.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. Daniel Jones ranks as one of the top QBs in football this year, averaging an outstanding 189.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.
The predictive model expects the Rams as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 129.6 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.. Tyler Higbee's 81.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a meaningful gain in his receiving skills over last year's 74.6% figure.. Since the start of last season, the poor Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a staggering 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-most in the league.
The predictive model expects the Rams as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 129.6 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.. The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to total 11.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The Colts pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.4%) versus WRs since the start of last season (70.4%).
The predictive model expects the Rams as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 129.6 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.. With a sizeable 61.5% Route Participation% (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Kyren Williams places among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.. Kyren Williams's pass-game efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 7.18 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 4.90 figure last season.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. With an elite 89.4% Route Participation Rate (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Michael Pittman places among the wide receivers with the highest volume in the NFL.. In this contest, Michael Pittman is projected by the model to find himself in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 8.3 targets.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. With an elite 63.9% Route Participation Rate (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor has been among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in football.. The projections expect Jonathan Taylor to accumulate 3.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.
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