Carolina @ New England Picks & Props

The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Since the start of last season, the shaky Carolina Panthers defense has been gouged for a colossal 1.85 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the highest rate in football. The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). As it relates to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a striking 48.0 per game. Hunter Henry's 50.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 44.2. Hunter Henry grades out in the 100th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an outstanding 0.50 per game. The Panthers defense has surrendered the most TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.60 per game since the start of last season.

The Panthers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Panthers. The leading projections forecast Tommy Tremble to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack near the end zone in this game (10.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.5% in games he has played). Tommy Tremble's 100.0% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 80.0% rate. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New England's unit has been very bad since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-worst in football.

The Panthers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Panthers. Chuba Hubbard has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among RBs. Chuba Hubbard ranks in the 100th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an excellent 0.50 per game. With an awful ratio of just 0.00 rushing TDs per game (1st percentile), Chuba Hubbard places as one of the weakest rushing touchdown-scorers in football this year.

The Panthers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Panthers. Since the start of last season, the deficient New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 8th-largest rate in football. The Patriots defense has been gouged for the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.00 per game since the start of last season. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, New England's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). The Panthers pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.8%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (86.8%). The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). The projections expect Stefon Diggs to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the goal line in this contest (15.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played). Stefon Diggs ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season with a whopping 22.9% of his offense's air yards accumulated. Stefon Diggs's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 73.7% to 86.4%. The Panthers defense has been gouged for the 6th-most receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.

The Panthers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Panthers. The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.60 per game since the start of last season. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, New England's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.