Tennessee @ Houston Picks & Props

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Texans are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. While C.J. Stroud has received 20.0% of his team's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Houston's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's contest at 12.5%. The running TD column reads "0" on C.J. Stroud's stats page this year. Since the start of last season, the shaky Tennessee Titans defense has yielded a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-biggest rate in the league.

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 9th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 129.3 plays on offense called: the 5th-most among all games this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. The projections expect Chig Okonkwo to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the goal line in this week's game (14.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Texans are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to running backs: 0.35 per game since the start of last season.

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 9th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 129.3 plays on offense called: the 5th-most among all games this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. While Calvin Ridley has received 10.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Tennessee's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 18.7%.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Texans are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. Nico Collins has accumulated a monstrous 101.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among WRs. Nico Collins's 67.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the league: 94th percentile for wideouts. Nico Collins grades out in the 93rd percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a remarkable 0.50 per game.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Texans are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. With an exceptional 10.5% Red Zone Target Rate (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Schultz stands as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the end zone in football. When talking about air yards, Dalton Schultz ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a superb 39.0 per game. Dalton Schultz's 34.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 84th percentile for tight ends.

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 9th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 129.3 plays on offense called: the 5th-most among all games this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. The model projects Tony Pollard to be a more important option in his team's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest (7.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 9th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 129.3 plays on offense called: the 5th-most among all games this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. The Texans defense has given up the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.70 per game since the start of last season.