New Orleans @ Buffalo Picks & Props

The Saints have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are big underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.5 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week. With an elite 25.0% Red Zone Target% (87th percentile) this year, Chris Olave has been among the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 135.5 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the anemic New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered a whopping 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 10th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 135.5 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football. With an elite 21.7% Red Zone Target Rate (87th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid has been among the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league. Dalton Kincaid has totaled a staggering 44.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile when it comes to TEs. Dalton Kincaid slots into the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 41.9 figure since the start of last season.

The Saints have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are big underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.5 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week. Juwan Johnson has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 135.5 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football. James Cook has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 8.7% this year, which ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs. In regards to air yards, James Cook grades out in the towering 81st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards). When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 135.5 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season. Josh Allen's 70.8% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a noteable boost in his passing precision over last season's 64.7% mark. Josh Allen has been among the best TD passers in football this year, averaging an exceptional 1.25 per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.

The Saints have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are big underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.5 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week. While Alvin Kamara has earned 75.0% of his team's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in New Orleans's rushing attack near the end zone in this game at 61.7%.