Houston @ Jacksonville Picks & Props

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL. C.J. Stroud has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in football when it comes to quarterbacks (2nd percentile). Since the start of last season, the feeble Jaguars defense has conceded a colossal 1.74 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-largest rate in football.

The Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board. The Texans defense has conceded the 3rd-most receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.21 per game since the start of last season.

The Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Travis Etienne has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which puts him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs. The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board. The Texans defense has conceded the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.79 per game since the start of last season.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL. With a top-tier 33.3% Red Zone Target Share (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Nico Collins has been as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL. Nico Collins has put up a colossal 98.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among wideouts. Nico Collins has been in the 95th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 66.1 figure since the start of last season.

The Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (12.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.5% in games he has played). Brenton Strange has notched a whopping 25.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL. While Nick Chubb has received 76.9% of his team's red zone carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be much less involved in Houston's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's game at 64.4%. Since the start of last season, the poor Jaguars defense has been gouged for a whopping 0.26 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 6th-biggest rate in football.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL. As it relates to air yards, Dalton Schultz grades out in the towering 91st percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating an impressive 38.0 per game. Dalton Schultz has been in the 86th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 34.4 mark since the start of last season. Dalton Schultz's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 61.6% to 72.5%.