Los Angeles @ Las Vegas Picks & Props

Herbert's favorite target should get targeted early and often on Monday night.

I'm expecting more out of Jeanty this week against a Chargers defense that looked vulnerable against the run in Week 1.

Herbert should continue the fast start to his season and blow by his passing total in Las Vegas.

Justin Herbert shredded the Chiefs in Week 1, and now he faces a Vegas secondary that might be the worst in the league. Meanwhile, the Chargers' defense should regress a bit in 2025 after outperforming expectations and facing a ton of bad offenses last year. That L.A. stop unit could have its hands full with Geno Smith who threw for 362 yards last week and looks like a great fit in Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense. That's not even mentioning both teams drafted highly-regarded RBs in the first round, but neither found their footing in Week 1. If Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton start to play up to their potential, both offenses could really take off.

The Chargers ran 3-WR sets at the highest rate in Week 1—84%—creating plenty of opportunities for Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston. All three were involved against Kansas City, and in the red zone, the Chargers ran it four times (all to Omarion Hampton) and passed three times. Two of those red-zone targets went to Johnston, who had some drops but still found the end zone twice. He’s the longest price of the three receivers to score this week at +250, in what should be another high-opportunity spot indoors and in a favorable matchup. Johnston is running the second-most routes on the team and seeing the most red-zone looks early on. I’ll take the value and play him at +250—and would continue to back whichever of the trio offers the longest number in this offense.

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Raiders to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With an impressive 70.3% Adjusted Completion% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Geno Smith stands among the most accurate QBs in football.

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Raiders to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With an exceptional rate of 262.0 adjusted passing yards per game (90th percentile), Geno Smith has been as one of the leading quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's group of safeties has been terrific since the start of last season, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Raiders to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Since the start of last season, the porous Chargers defense has surrendered a monstrous 147.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the most in the league.

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Raiders to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects the Chargers as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Raiders to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects the Chargers as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (88.1%) to running backs since the start of last season (88.1%).

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Geno Smith's running effectiveness (6.94 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (77th percentile among QBs).. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.