Tampa Bay @ Houston Picks & Props

Haason Reddick was tied for the Week 1 lead with eight pressures, and a pass rush win rate of 25%. He will lead a Tampa Bay pass rush that won’t have to deal with Joe Mixon’s rushing ability, and should be able to pin its ears back.

 

That makes Stroud’s rushing total of 10.5 yards a very enticing play here. Nick Chubb isn’t going to present much of a rushing threat, and Stroud will likely be in plenty of situations where he’s behind the chains. 

 

Add in the leaky line and Tampa Bay’s pressure, and he’s going to need to make plays with his legs. Stroud ran for 32 yards on five carries last week, and will get to double-digit yardage here as well. 

 

Last season, Nico Collins had a total of seven touchdown catches, but did the majority of his damage at home with six of them coming at NRG Stadium in Houston. In fact, he had a touchdown catch in five of his six home games, with the lone outlier being the 31-2 loss to Baltimore in Week 17.

With Chris Godwin still rehabbing his injury, Mike Evans will once again be the focal point of the Bucs’ offense on Monday night. Evans had 11 touchdowns in just 14 games last season, and the Texans’ secondary is susceptible to top wide receivers.

The Texans allowed 21 completions last week to Matt Stafford despite playing in the lowest-scoring game of Week 1. They did a good job containing the run game, forcing more passes. They can do that this week as well, after the Bucs had only 101 yards rushing last week on 23 carries. The Bucs are underdogs and could be playing from behind. This should give Mayfield a similar number of attempts to last week, and I expect a much better completion percentage.

Thanks to a bad offensive line, C.J. Stroud was pressured on 14 of his 34 drop-backs and was sacked three times in Week 1. However, he also took off running five times for 32 yards.  Last week, the Bucs generated 20 pressures on 46 drop-backs. They will apply pressure to Stroud, forcing him to scramble and pick up yards with his feet. 

Schultz went 3/28/0 on five targets in Week 1, but with more routes and limited WR competition, he’s in line for a bump. I’m projecting six to seven targets, four to five catches, and 45+ receiving yards. The Bucs also gave up seven catches on eight targets to Kyle Pitts last week.

It’s a favorable setup for Schultz—an indoor home game against a Bucs defense that struggled to contain Kyle Pitts in Week 1. Schultz tied for the team lead in targets last week, despite playing just 54% of snaps and running a route on 60% of dropbacks. The Texans’ 3-WR sets lacked any real pass-catching punch, and new OC Nick Caley may be forced to adjust, which should mean more involvement for Schultz. There’s also a clear path to increased snaps with fellow tight end Cade Stover out for the foreseeable future due to a fractured foot after playing 57% of snaps in Week 1. I’m on Schultz at +240 and would play it down to +210.

After revamping the o-line, Houston still allowed C.J. Stroud to suffer three sacks, get hit seven times, and feel the heat on 41% of his dropbacks in a loss to the L.A. Rams in Week 1. Adding injury to insult (and more injury, with guard Ed Ingram still out) was the loss of starting center Jake Andrews to a high ankle sprain. That porous pass protection faces a Tampa Bay defense just dying to hit a quarterback. Under Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers have a very aggressive pass rush that blitzes at a high rate. This feels like a lower-scoring slog with the Bucs blitzers making game-changing plays for the underdog.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in football.. Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the most adjusted yards in football (244.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up a massive 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the highest rate in the league.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in football.. Nick Chubb has posted a whopping 1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among RBs. (That might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The Buccaneers defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (39.0) versus running backs since the start of last season.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (61.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buccaneers.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the poor Houston Texans defense has allowed the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a colossal 8.21 YAC.. The Texans safeties grade out as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

The model projects the Texans offensive blueprint to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.. The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 43.3% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. C.J. Stroud has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this season (18.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (9.9%).. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Tampa Bay's collection of DEs has been awful since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

The model projects the Texans offensive blueprint to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.. The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 43.3% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The leading projections forecast Nick Chubb to earn 16.4 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Nick Chubb has earned 57.5% of his offense's rushing play calls since the start of last season, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.

The Texans defensive tackles project as the worst group of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

The model projects the Texans offensive blueprint to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.. The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 43.3% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The leading projections forecast Nick Chubb to earn 16.4 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Nick Chubb has earned 57.5% of his offense's rushing play calls since the start of last season, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.