Atlanta @ Minnesota Picks & Props

Jefferson should be in for a much different game than his season opener against the Bears. He'll be matched up with the ineffective Mike Hughes, who was ranked 56th of 83 corners by PFF last week. I expect Kevin O’Connell to look to get Jefferson the ball early and often in a soft matchup with the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary, and their early-season tendencies would certainly back that up.

The Vikings' pressure should funnel Atlanta’s offense back toward Bijan Robinson in the short game. With fewer high-percentage looks, London is likely to fall short of six receptions.

I expect Atlanta to apply the defensive pressure because that’s what they do. I also anticipate McCarthy making plays with his feet and for him to clear his modest rushing prop total.

Jefferson is typically a high-volume wideout and should see enough targets to make him a strong bet to clear his receiving yards prop.

Justin Jefferson is trading at -117 to go Over the total of 73.5 receiving yards at Bet99, but this price should be closer to -140. The narrative surrounding J.J. McCarthy has driven Jefferson’s total down to a number where we should definitely be playing the Over — especially against the Atlanta Falcons. Mike Hughes and A.J. Terrell are no match for Jefferson out wide at defensive back.

McCarthy threw the ball just 20 times with seven of those passes targeted at J.J., who struggled with timing and footing on the torn-up turf at Solider Field. Jefferson is projected for a much better night in Week 2. He gets to come home to the fast indoor track of U.S. Bank Stadium. For his career, Jefferson averages 7.0 receptions in domed stadiums, compared to just 5.7 outdoors. These team collided last December with Jefferson leading Minnesota to a home win with seven catches on seven targets for 132 yards and a two touchdowns. Week 2 projections range from 6.1 to 6.7 receptions on Sunday night.

Jordan Mason looked like the better back on Monday night, and his success on early downs helped open up the playbook—especially on 2nd and short in the fourth quarter. Mason logged a 57% snap share and handled 15 of the team’s 23 RB carries. He ran with more authority and should be in line for another 15 touches Sunday night in a solid indoor matchup. Aaron Jones handled most of the pass-catching work, but Mason got all three red-zone carries—all between the 10- and 20-yard line.

The J.J. McCarthy hate continues to roll on, even though he's the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week. With money pouring in on the Atlanta Falcons, the spread has dropped to Vikings -3.5, creating a significant edge for us, as the Vikings should be trading closer to a -5.5 favorite. The Vikings have one of the better offensive lines in football, and it could get even better in Week 2, as they should be getting their left tackle back for Sunday Night Football. Christian Darrisaw was close to returning for the game against Chicago but ultimately sat out, most likely due to the field conditions.

J.J. McCarthy’s exorcism in the final 15 minutes of MNF almost makes you forget just how shit this offense was in the opening three frames (dead last in EPA per play in first three quarters). Another QB was awesome in the fourth quarter in Week 1: Atlanta's Michael Penix Jr. He almost willed his team to victory in the 4Q against an aggressive Tampa Bay defense. I believe this line is inflated due to recency bias after Minnesota's win on MNF and could see this one finishing much closer than the 5-point spread. Keeping an eye on Drake London and Darnell Mooney for the Falcons offense.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (72.5% Adjusted Completion%).

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

At the moment, the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in football (57.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Atlanta Falcons.. Minnesota's defense grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to causing interceptions, notching 1.26 per game.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

At the moment, the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in football (57.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Atlanta Falcons.. With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) since the start of last season, Kyle Pitts stands among the best pass-game tight ends in the NFL in space.. The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.3%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (72.3%).. As it relates to safeties pass-rushing, Minnesota's group of safeties has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the 9th-best in football.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a top-tier 99.2% Route% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Jefferson ranks among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.. This week, Justin Jefferson is projected by the projection model to slot into the 100th percentile among wideouts with 10.7 targets.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. The model projects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 6.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.. When talking about air yards, T.J. Hockenson ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 52.0 per game.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. The projections expect Aaron Jones to garner 4.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.. Aaron Jones has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 11.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs.