Denver @ Indianapolis Picks & Props

The Broncos won 31-13 at home against the Colts last year, and their defense could be even better this year. I also expect them to clean up the turnovers on offense and take advantage of a bad rushing defense that the Colts have.

Given he’s getting more carries and targets than the rest of the running back room combined, and they’re playing a Colts team, who might just have faced the Dolphins at the right time, we have to back Dobbins to score the opening touchdown of this game.

Tyler Warren had a huge NFL debut, leading the Colts with nine targets and finishing with a 7/76/0 line. He’s currently +235 to score this weekend—shorter than Michael Pittman (+255) and just behind Jonathan Taylor (-135) and Daniel Jones (+175). Normally, I’d lean Pittman at this number, but he’ll likely see plenty of Pat Surtain in coverage. Instead, I’m backing the big rookie tight end, who already looks to have chemistry with Daniel Jones and saw two of the team’s three red-zone targets in Week 1. In what could be a low-scoring game, I wouldn’t play this much lower than +220.

Courtland Sutton already has a touchdown to his name following last week’s six-catch, 61-yard performance against Tennessee, and the Broncos’ WR1 should thrive against a Colts secondary that could be without its top two corners. Both Charvarius Ward (concussion) and Jaylen Jones (hamstring) are currently listed as questionable for Sunday’s matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.12 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With a fantastic 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Evan Engram stands among the leading tight ends in the pass game in the league.. Last year, the deficient Colts pass defense has allowed a monstrous 83.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.12 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Broncos offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).

The leading projections forecast the Colts to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.12 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Broncos offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).

The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. In this game, Daniel Jones is expected by the predictive model to total the 10th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.6. . Daniel Jones comes in as one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 6.31 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 11th percentile.. The Broncos defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the most in football.. The Denver Broncos cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

The Colts have intercepted 0.97 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best defense in football by this metric.

The leading projections forecast the Colts to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.. In this game, Michael Pittman is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 87th percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.. With an extraordinary 24.6% Target Rate (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Michael Pittman has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.12 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's contest, Courtland Sutton is projected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.6 targets.. Since the start of last season, the weak Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been torched for a colossal 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.12 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. This week, Evan Engram is projected by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets.. Last year, the porous Colts defense has conceded a staggering 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Colts to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.. With a top-tier 62.4% Route Participation% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor has been as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in football.. The model projects Jonathan Taylor to total 3.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs.