Raiders @ Eagles Picks & Props

The leading projections forecast the Raiders to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (only 53.1 per game on average). Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) generally cause worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. The Raiders offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board. The Eagles pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.4%) versus running backs this year (77.4%).

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Eagles, who are a heavy favorite by 12.5 points. The projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and play styles of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 26.68 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo among all games this week. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game. The Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.6%) to tight ends this year (69.6%).

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Eagles, who are a heavy favorite by 12.5 points. The projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and play styles of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 26.68 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo among all games this week. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game. The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

The Raiders will be forced to use backup QB Kenny Pickett in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -12.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on passing than their standard approach. The Raiders have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.0% pass rate. The Philadelphia Eagles safeties rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

This week, A.J. Brown is expected by the predictive model to land in the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.1 targets. A.J. Brown is positioned as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 5.2 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile. This year, the poor Raiders pass defense has allowed a colossal 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Las Vegas's unit has been awful this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

The Raiders will be forced to use backup QB Kenny Pickett in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -12.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on passing than their standard approach. The Raiders have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.0% pass rate. The Philadelphia Eagles safeties rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Jack Bech has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Michael Mayer has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

DeVonta Smith has gone over 4.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jahan Dotson has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Lockett has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.